Bob Elliott
· Nonconsensus
· June 23, 2026 at 10:17
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Central banks are maintaining a hawkish tone on inflation despite recent oil price declines, but the actual policy trajectory is shifting away from further hikes, which should push front-end yields lower. This disconnect between rhetoric and action suggests bond markets may rally on the front end.
•Oil prices have declined recently, yet central bankers continue to talk tough on inflation.
•The recent round of global central bank meetings all shared a 'rear view mirror' approach—basing policy on past data rather than forward-looking indicators.
•The shift in policy calculus 'meaningfully away from further hikes' is expected to drive lower front-end yields.