Bob Elliott
· Nonconsensus
· June 10, 2026 at 10:26
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
US inflation is set to rise above 4% year-over-year for the first time since spring 2023, but unlike the post-COVID period, this is occurring amid slowing wage growth and no fiscal support, squeezing households. The article warns that this combination points to a stagflationary environment that could dampen consumer spending and pressure risk assets.
•Inflation expected to exceed 4% YoY for the first time since spring 2023.
•Wage growth is slowing simultaneously, reducing household purchasing power.
•No fiscal support is forthcoming, intensifying the squeeze on consumers.
•The current inflation uptick is structurally different from the 2021-2022 post-COVID boom.