Bob Elliott
· Nonconsensus
· June 24, 2026 at 10:13
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The article argues that the prevailing 'run it hot' narrative, which fueled the debasement trade and priced in persistent inflation from oil and semiconductor shocks, is about to be disrupted by a coming wave of disinflation. This implies markets may need to reprice expectations for inflation and central bank policy, favoring duration and disinflation beneficiaries over inflation hedges.
•The 'run it hot' narrative dominated early 2026, driving a surge in the debasement trade (real assets, commodities, inflation swaps).
•After a brief pause following the oil and semiconductor price shock, markets resumed pricing persistent inflation pressure.
•The author identifies a forthcoming 'wave of disinflation' that will challenge this consensus, though the specific drivers (e.g., demand weakness, supply recovery, or policy lag) are not detailed in the excerpt.