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Been running 13 autonomous agents on a live account across Robinhood, coinbase and Kalshi, each with its own capital slice and no coordination layer between them. Up 6.97% this week overall.
Some of the designs:
Truth Social, inverted. An LLM scores every new Trump post for directional tone with a 0 to 1 confidence. Acts only above 0.8, then inverts the call. High confidence bullish rotates to TLT/GLD, high confidence bearish to SPY/QQQ. Below threshold, nothing happens.
Same feed, patient. A second agent waits five days after a post before acting, on the theory that the first two sessions are reaction and whatever is left after that is the real move. Longer holds. Running both is how I am trying to find out whether the signal is in the reaction or in what survives it.
ClinicalTrials.gov. Buys a whitelisted biotech sponsor when a trial registers a Phase 3 entry, holds 60 days. Favourite idea in here, because the source is a government registry nobody is racing to price.
STOCK Act disclosures. Mirrors purchase filings from a set of high-volume House and Senate filers. Next bar, 60 day hold, capped at 8 concurrent.
Crypto, winner take all. Ten liquid Coinbase pairs ranked every day on 7 day momentum, volume trend and volatility. It holds the single highest-conviction coin and nothing else, re-picked daily. Zero diversification by design, but it’s been performing well.
Kalshi versus the forecasters. Compares Kalshi economic-data prices against figures institutions have already published (Cleveland Fed nowcast, wire consensus, CME FedWatch) and acts only when the two disagree by a real margin. It does not forecast anything itself. Not seeing good results on Kalshi.
Plus a sector contrarian that buys the two weakest of the 11 S&P sectors, a WallStreetBets agent weighted by sentiment times upvotes, and two crypto rotations.
First week is in the screenshots. Way too early to read anything into it.
Still working out:
One, overlap. 13 agents running independently with nothing netting them, and several keep landing on the same names from completely different logic. I think I am diversified across 13 strategies and I genuinely do not know how concentrated I actually am. Is there a good way to measure that across agents without just collapsing everything into one portfolio?
Two, the confidence threshold. The Trump agent only acts above 0.8. I picked 0.8 by feel. Does anyone actually calibrate this, as in check whether the model is right 80% of the time when it says 0.8, and set the cutoff from that? Or is everyone eyeballing it.
What would you add?