Should a raw strategy already have a Profit Factor >1?
u/sqzr2 ·
Reddit — r/algotrading
· 2026년 8월 6일, 07:17
· ⬆ 16 포인트
· 💬 14 개 댓글
| Reddit에서 보기 ↗
AI 요약
=== 요약 ===
- 게시물은 다듬지 않은 원시 전략이 정제 전에 이미 Profit Factor >1을 보여야 하는지 묻는다.
- 저자의 주장: 약하거나 손실이 있는 원시 아이디어(~0.75-1.0 PF)에서 시작하여 필터링을 통해 ~1.25 PF로 개선하는 것이 정상이다.
- 이는 프로세스/방법론 논의이며, 특정 시장 분석이나 매매 추천이 아니다.
=== 심리 ===
중립
=== 투자 아이디어 ===
이 게시물에는 실행 가능한 투자 아이디어가 없다.
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I'm curious whether my development process is fundamentally sound, or whether I'm wasting time.
My approach is to start with the **raw idea only**. I code the strategy with almost no optimisation or filtering. Just the entry/exit logic (signal + trigger). No time-of-day filter, no day-of-week filter, no volatility filter, no trend filter, etc.
I then run a backtest over 2022-2026. At this stage I **expect the results to be bad**. A typical first pass might be:
* Profit Factor: 0.75-1.0
* Sharpe: poor
* Max drawdown: \~15%
The idea is to analyse the trades, gradually remove weaker setups, and hopefully end up with something around a **1.25 Profit Factor** before moving to forward testing.
The reason I'm asking is that I often see people here saying a strategy isn't worth pursuing unless the **very first, unfiltered backtest** already has a Profit Factor of 1.5+.
That seems almost impossible to me. If I could repeatedly create raw strategies with a 1.5 PF, it would feel like winning the lottery.
So am I approaching this correctly? Is it normal to start with a mediocre or even losing strategy and refine it into something profitable, or should the initial strategy already demonstrate a clear edge?