MSFT circular AI revenue

u/Forget_me_never · Reddit — r/ValueInvesting · August 06, 2026 at 09:01 · ⬆ 15 pts · 💬 48 comments  | View on Reddit ↗
AI Summary

Summary

  • The post argues Microsoft’s AI revenue is partly circular: $24B of the $37B in 12-month AI revenue is tied to OpenAI.
  • The author questions OpenAI’s durability: price cuts, weak differentiation, and ChatGPT usage dropping sharply during school breaks.

  • Thesis: The recent AI-driven rally in MSFT may be built on fragile, possibly unsustainable revenue.

  • Quality assessment: Speculative but data-informed commentary; not deep-value DD, and relies heavily on one Bloomberg data point plus user-behavior inference.

Score 15
Comments 48
Upvote % 64%
▶ Full Post Text
Ideas
u/Forget_me_never Reddit r/ValueInvesting
$24B of MSFT’s $37B AI revenue comes from OpenAI; ChatGPT usage fell 50–70% during school breaks. If OpenAI weakens, MSFT’s reported AI growth and the broader “AI trade” narrative face downside risk. Bearish on MSFT’s AI revenue quality; a short or monitoring position is justified until the circularity risk is clearer. Microsoft’s broader cloud/software business is strong; contracts may be locked in; AI demand could re-accelerate.
MSFT MED
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This Reddit post, published August 06, 2026, features u/Forget_me_never discussing MSFT. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: u/Forget_me_never  · Tickers: MSFT