The author observes that memory suppliers like Micron are experiencing a temporary demand spike from data center builds, similar to the pandemic-era demand surge for PayPal. When data center investment slows (as with xAI renting out excess capacity and potential order cancellations), the extrapolated growth will reverse, leading to a sharp price decline. Short Micron as a cyclical overvaluation play, betting on mean reversion once the data center capex cycle peaks.
The author observes that memory suppliers like Micron are experiencing a temporary demand spike from data center builds, similar to the pandemic-era demand surge for PayPal. When data center investment slows (as with xAI renting out excess capacity and potential order cancellations), the extrapolated growth will reverse, leading to a sharp price decline. Short Micron as a cyclical overvaluation play, betting on mean reversion once the data center capex cycle peaks.
The author specifically names Sandisk (Western Digital) as another equipment supplier with inflated valuations due to the same temporary demand. As data center investment normalizes, excess inventory and canceled orders will hurt WDC’s revenue and margins, triggering a share price drop. Short Western Digital as a paired trade with Micron, following the same cyclical reversal thesis.
The author specifically names Sandisk (Western Digital) as another equipment supplier with inflated valuations due to the same temporary demand. As data center investment normalizes, excess inventory and canceled orders will hurt WDC’s revenue and margins, triggering a share price drop. Short Western Digital as a paired trade with Micron, following the same cyclical reversal thesis.