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My valuation: perpetuity DCF with margin of safety hurdles and FCF yields.
These are the most interesting opportunities I found:
**CME - Chicago Mercantile Exchange**
Fundamental driver: macro volatility. They sell hedging contracts. Revenues are a toll on risk. Perpetual corporate demand.
Moat: impossible to destroy. Liquidity attracts more liquidity, CME has loads of it, and clients want that.
This is the single best opportunity I found. A wonderful business trading below fair price due to an overblown sell-off (CFTC approving bitcoin perpetual futures contracts fiasco: cannot impact on CME revenues due to client requirements. And CME can always get their own perpetual futures product if they find demand for it, but they did not.).
Loads of new products for 2026 driving growth: crypto futures, 24/7 gold trading, single stock futures, compute futures, treasury link.
Diversification across asset classes (interest rates, equity index, FX, energy, agriculture, metals, crypto) keeps the revenues stable. 12% of revenues come from a subscription-based market analytics segment, making MSCI slightly more antifragile.
**Topicus & Constellation Software**
Subscription-based revenues, deeply embedded into slow-moving operations, massively diversified holdings that AI is unlikely to disrupt anytime soon, if ever.
You get the massively successful growth driver for free at the current valuation: the decade-tested M&A rulebook.
**Visa**
As of the last few years, a wonderful company at a good price.
A massive moat and huge growth vectors: global spending, global cash to digital conversion, value added services.
The fears of disruption are currently overblown, with fundamentals being as strong as ever.
**MSCI**
Wonderful company at a good price. Same as V.
Huge drivers behind future growth: passive investing adoption, development of emerging equity markets. Subscriptions stabilize revenues during down times.
I don't see any risks here. Stellar fundamentals.
Other interesting names:
**MELI** \- risky but attractive if LATAM develops nicely in the next decades and loans don't blow up. Their aggressive loaning moves should be closely watched: NPL & NIMAL.
What they're doing is experimental, but I feel there's some asymmetry here: if it works, it's an amazing pick today. If loans start blowing up, they still have 55% of their revenues from Marketplace as a buffer, and they get to find out what the limits of the economies are. They still keep the massive market share, vendors and payment partners built as a result of these aggressive decisions.
**Euronext** \- European equity market operator. Keeps acquiring the fragmented, national equity market operators as they develop. A good example of an acquisition target for them is BVB, the romanian equity market operator. I own some BVB but the ship has already sailed here due to good development news.
The price is fair but there is no sufficient margin of safety for me.
**BKNG** \- Solid compounder with great growth vectors. Even pricing in potential disruption by AI / Google (which I feel is unlikely in the near future), the current valuation is very good. But the dangers are there.
While I'm not afraid of the travel component as it is strongly linked to the growing global disposable income (an objective tailwind over the long term), they cannot soften macro blows: their whole revenue is based off travel.
**OTCM** \- The US OTC market operator. Looks good but currently fades in comparison to MSCI & CME. Not as many growth opportunities, not as battle-tested. Will consider if the margin of safety grows for this one.