u/SadComparison9352 ·
Reddit — r/StockMarket
· July 19, 2026 at 19:03
· ⬆ 32 pts
· 💬 30 comments
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So Kimi K3 was released, why does it cause investors to rethink the massive AI capex?
It is the largest model to date with almost 3 trillion parameters and 1 million context window. If anything it should confirm that models are getting bigger and bigger (GPT3 was in the billions), and so even more compute and memory are needed. They even run out of compute and have to suspend usage of their hosted service.
The token price of kimi is not exactly cheap, it is comparable to Us frontiers models. They can’t possibly sell at very deep discount because they still need profits to fund their R&D and compute expansion
true there are already algo optimizations like mixture of experts etc. but isnt this already well known (deepsek is using MoE)? the entire industry is moving towards efficiency for sure, memory usage optimization etc. but models still get bigger.
This should disrupt closed model like OpenAI and Anthropic etc. But picks and shovels (semis) are still safe right? Nvda and Avgo barely moved with the news.
Most companies would prefer to host open models on US clouds rather than china cloud or build their own data center , for privacy, security, geopolitical, compliance reasons. So US hyperscslers would still get the bulk of the AI business. China cloud is still using old tech and inefficient hardware , so they probably cannot compete in terms of providing the best inference speed and training performance. China still has to use Intel and AMD CPUs and US semi equipment right because their own domestic alternatives are way behind.
Another thing is disruption from china memory suppliers. Please , they are still few years behind the most advanced dram in terms of yield and manufacturing, and in terms of HBM-1 they are several years behind. HBM is notoriously difficult to manufacture due to extremely high precision and other advanced tech needed. Their market share for dram is still the smallest amongst the memory cartel.
Why should we be worried about china AI developments at this point?
If China AI becomes a real threat, I’m sure government would ban it just like they ban huawei / EVs to protect domestic industries