Bloomberg Surveillance 7/23/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  July 23, 2026 at 14:51  |  2:25:58  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Russ Koesterich — Chief Investment Strategist, BlackRock
Ohsung Kwon — Chief Equity Strategist, Wells Fargo
Ben Kallo — Senior Research Analyst, Baird
Daragh Maher — Global FX Strategist, HSBC
Janno Lieber — Chair and CEO of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA)
Veronica Clark — Economist, Citi

Summary

The episode covers sharp market moves driven by Tech earnings, surging oil, and hawkish central bank expectations. Alphabet and Tesla earnings disappoint on spending concerns; crude oil nears $100 as Middle East conflict escalates. The ECB holds rates but warns on energy inflation, while strong U.S. jobless claims add pressure on the Fed ahead of its meeting.

  • Alphabet beats on revenue but stock falls on higher capex and negative free cash flow.
  • Tesla misses earnings and reaffirms heavy AI spending; shares drop.
  • Brent crude climbs toward $100 after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea.
  • ECB leaves rates unchanged, warns of inflation risks from energy prices, and gives no forward guidance.
  • U.S. initial jobless claims hit lowest since 1969, strengthening the case for Fed hawks.
  • BlackRock trims tech overweight and points to energy stocks as the best equity hedge.
  • Wells Fargo strategist favors semiconductors over hyperscalers amid AI capex cycle.
  • HSBC expects the U.S. dollar to strengthen further against the euro.
Ideas
Russ Koesterich Chief Investment Strategist, BlackRock 8:02
Avoid bonds; they fail as hedge.
Bonds are not acting as a hedge against equities; the correlation between stocks and bonds is the most positive in years. Until clear signs of economic softening emerge, buying bonds for protection or income is unattractive. The portfolio holds a significant bond position but is not adding to it now.
TLT HIGH
Russ Koesterich Chief Investment Strategist, BlackRock 8:30
Energy stocks are best equity hedge.
With equities under pressure from higher oil and rates, the only hedge with conviction is energy stocks. Bonds are not working as a hedge because the stock-bond correlation is the most positive in years. A modest overweight in the energy sector provides protection against equity drawdowns, while the economy remains solid and oil supply risks persist.
XLE HIGH
Janno Lieber Chair and CEO of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) 17:55
Oil supply at risk, prices stay elevated.
The Red Sea is becoming an increasingly critical chokepoint as Houthi attacks disrupt Saudi oil shipments. Iran is using the Houthis to pressure oil prices higher. With two chokepoints now at risk and inventories low, oil prices are under sustained upward pressure and the conflict shows no sign of ending.
BNO HIGH
Ben Kallo Senior Research Analyst, Baird 85:27
Tesla merger premium not priced in.
Tesla shares are undervalued because they do not reflect a potential merger premium with SpaceX. If the two entities are combined, Tesla shareholders could receive a significant premium. Even without a merger, the company is building physical AI and has many positive catalysts.
TSLA HIGH
Daragh Maher Global FX Strategist, HSBC 91:27
Dollar strengthens, euro under pressure.
The ingredients are in place for the US dollar to strengthen. If the ECB hikes rates in response to energy prices, it will be a 'bad hike' that hurts the euro due to stagflation risk. If the Fed hikes, it directly supports the dollar. Either way, the dollar wins against the euro.
EUR/USD HIGH
Ohsung Kwon Chief Equity Strategist, Wells Fargo 100:38
Semis gain from hyperscaler capex boom.
Semiconductor stocks are the primary beneficiaries of massive hyperscaler capex. As long as capex keeps rising, semis will outperform. With oil back at $90, the AI trade returns to semis as a safe haven. The team remains bullish on semis and sees hyperscalers lagging due to cash flow pressure.
SMH HIGH
Ohsung Kwon Chief Equity Strategist, Wells Fargo 104:15
Hyperscalers pressured by cash burn, yields.
Hyperscalers are being pressured as their free cash flow drops to zero and they turn into long-duration assets. As yields rise, these stocks underperform. Wells Fargo has been bearish on hyperscalers all year and expects them to continue to lag the broader market.
Hyperscaler Stocks MED
Up Next
13:51
Leaning Into AI Is Paying Off, Blackstone's Gray Says
Bloomberg Markets · Jul 23
1:11:44
Why this longevity startup raised in Japan, not Silicon Valley | TWiST Tokyo | E2315
This Week in Startups · Jul 23
20:18
Jimmy Pitaro's Game Plan For ESPN's Next Era
CNBC · Jul 23
51:13
There is no K-semiconductor peak out"...Buy companies that make money | Myung Min-jun, Kim Ki-eun, Cha Young-joo [Stock Beginner Rescue Team]
3PRO TV (삼프로TV) · Jul 23
48:21
Chris Irons: Something Will Break, Sharp Deleveraging, The Fed Folds, & Gold Could Hit $7,500
Julia LaRoche Show · Jul 23

This Bloomberg Markets video, published July 23, 2026, features Russ Koesterich, Janno Lieber, Ben Kallo, Daragh Maher, Ohsung Kwon discussing TLT, XLE, BNO, TSLA, EUR/USD, SMH, Hyperscaler Stocks. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Russ Koesterich, Janno Lieber, Ben Kallo, Daragh Maher, Ohsung Kwon  · Tickers: TLT, XLE, BNO, TSLA, EUR/USD, SMH, Hyperscaler Stocks