Real Yield 7/16/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  July 16, 2026 at 20:41  |  42:05  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Tony Rodriguez — Head of Fixed Income Strategy, Nuveen
Kay Herr — CIO of US GFICC, JPMorgan Asset Management
Meghan Robson — Head of US Credit Strategy, BNP Paribas

Summary

Scarlet Fu hosts a Real Yield episode covering June inflation data that showed easing, though oil prices and geopolitical tensions cloud the outlook. Fixed-income guests Tony Rodriguez and Kay Herr discuss curve positioning and consumer loans, while the credit roundtable focuses on AI-driven hyperscaler debt saturation and long-duration IG underperformance. Other segments touch on European data center bond indigestion, CLO rating revamps, and municipal deals.

  • June CPI and PPI showed disinflation, with one-year inflation swaps falling below 2%, but oil price spikes from the Strait of Hormuz conflict add risk.
  • Fed Chair Warsh remains committed to price stability, with markets pricing out a 2026 hike and expecting patience.
  • Tony Rodriguez (Nuveen) sees the long end stuck and favors intermediate Treasuries for carry and potential curve steepening as rate cuts arrive.
  • Kay Herr (JPMorgan AM) finds duration less attractive and prefers consumer loans on strengthening consumer trends.
  • Meghan Robson (BNP Paribas) flags hyperscaler concentration in long-duration IG indices, supply-driven spread underperformance, and growing market discipline.
  • European data center operators face pushback in the Nordic high-yield bond market as cash-burning speculative borrowers meet cautious investors.
  • Rating agencies plan to update CLO methodologies, potentially upgrading tens of billions in bonds, but drawing pre-2008 parallels.
  • Muni highlights: Chicago’s parking meter lease transfer debate and Connecticut’s $2.4bn water bond sale that drew $70bn in orders.
Ideas
Tony Rodriguez Head of Fixed Income Strategy, Nuveen 12:08
Intermediate Treasuries offer carry and steepening potential
The long end of the curve is stuck near fair value, with the 10-year around 4.5% and the long end closer to 5%, making the intermediate (10-year) part attractive for carry. There is also potential for the curve to modestly steepen as the one remaining Fed hike priced into markets gets priced out and the Fed eventually cuts in the first half of next year.
US 10-year Treasury notes MED
Kay Herr CIO of US GFICC, JPMorgan Asset Management 12:35
Consumer loans benefit from a strengthening consumer
Duration is less interesting here; the stronger conviction is in consumer loans because the consumer continues to strengthen.
Consumer Loans MED
Meghan Robson Head of US Credit Strategy, BNP Paribas 24:36
Long-dated hyperscaler IG bonds face supply headwinds
Hyperscalers are nearly 15% of the long-duration IG index, creating concentration risk. Supply overhang has caused meaningful underperformance in hyperscaler spreads, and the market is becoming more disciplined, making long-dated hyperscaler bonds less attractive until valuations adjust further.
Long-duration US Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (hyperscaler heavy) MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published July 16, 2026, features Tony Rodriguez, Kay Herr, Meghan Robson discussing US 10-year Treasury notes, Consumer Loans, Long-duration US Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (hyperscaler heavy). 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Tony Rodriguez, Kay Herr, Meghan Robson  · Tickers: US 10-year Treasury notes, Consumer Loans, Long-duration US Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (hyperscaler heavy)