US-Canada Trade Talks Tick Down to Tariff Deadline

Summary

Sarah Bianchi discusses the final hours before the US-Canada tariff deadline, expecting a deal soon but noting steel tariff details are critical. She expects Mexico to seek similar relief, especially for autos, while a USMCA extension is less certain. She also discusses China's rare earth leverage as a constraint on US trade policy and the political pressures behind lower beef tariffs.

• US-Canada tariff agreement likely by the deadline or soon after, with steel quotas and derivatives central.
• Steel tariff protections are hard for the administration to ease due to past exemption concerns.
• Mexico likely to ask for similar Section 232 relief after a Canada deal, especially on autos.
• USMCA extension not guaranteed because of transshipment and Chinese investment issues.
• China's rare earth leverage helped constrain prior US tariff escalation and remains a strategic factor.
• Lowering ground beef tariffs signals sensitivity to food inflation but will anger parts of agriculture.