The Portfolio Built To Survive Every Crash | Jared Dillian

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  August 05, 2026 at 07:00  |  32:03  |  Forward Guidance
Speakers
Jared Dillian — Editor, The Daily Dirtnap

Summary

Jared Dillian joins Felix Jauvin to discuss his new book 'The Awesome Portfolio,' a low-volatility 20/20/20/20/20 allocation. They analyze Fed Chair Warsh's intentional yield curve steepening, weak economic data, and the unwind of a large leveraged fund as a potential bear market signal. Dillian provides trade ideas on steepeners, SOFR futures, gold, oil, and sector positioning.

  • Introduces the Awesome Portfolio: 20% each in stocks, bonds, gold, cash, real estate with high Sharpe and minimal drawdowns.
  • Argues Warsh lets the yield curve steepen intentionally by holding rates, tightening conditions and enabling future cuts.
  • Positions for no further rate hikes, buying 2-year SOFR futures, and expects a continued steepener trade.
  • Warns the recent leveraged fund blow-up may mark the start of a bear market, similar to early 2007.
  • Bearish on financials and oil; sees oil falling to $60–65 if the Iran conflict ends.
  • Bullish on defensive sectors (healthcare, staples) and gold, with gold basing for a breakout above $4,250.
Ideas
Jared Dillian Editor, The Daily Dirtnap 1:02
20/20/20/20/20 portfolio maximizes risk-adjusted returns.
A portfolio of 20% each in stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and real estate has the highest Sharpe ratio, returns ~9% annually since 1971, and suffers minimal drawdowns (worst -12% in 2022). It gives up only 2% annual return vs. stocks while drastically reducing volatility and emotional stress, providing a durable wealth-building solution.
STOCKS CASH GLD XLRE MED
Jared Dillian Editor, The Daily Dirtnap 14:02
Yield curve steepener for 6–12 months.
Fed Chair Warsh intentionally held rates steady to steepen the yield curve, letting the long end sell off. This tightens financial conditions immediately and allows future short-rate cuts. The curve should keep steepening for 6–12 months, with Fed funds declining to around 3% while long-end yields stay elevated.
U.S. Treasury curve steepener HIGH
Jared Dillian Editor, The Daily Dirtnap 17:07
Long 2-year SOFR futures; no more hikes.
The market has 1.7 rate hikes priced in through June 2026, but Warsh will not hike and data will cooperate. He expects the hiking cycle to end and is positioned for rate cuts, making long 2-year SOFR futures an outright bet on falling short-term rates.
2-Year SOFR futures HIGH
Jared Dillian Editor, The Daily Dirtnap 28:08
Financials topping; no explicit XLF short.
Avoid XLF: the video thesis says financials are topping technically and could lead a broader sell-off, but the visible content does not state an explicit short position, puts trade, or direct short call.
XLF LOW
Jared Dillian Editor, The Daily Dirtnap 28:17
Long defensive sectors: healthcare and staples.
Healthcare and consumer staples have been performing well. If you like these defensive sectors, you are implicitly bearish on the rest of the market. They offer relative safety in a weakening economy.
XLV XLP LOW
Jared Dillian Editor, The Daily Dirtnap 28:28
Avoid oil; risk of fall to 60.
He has liquidated all energy positions. Oil could fall to $60–65 if the Iran conflict ends. The run has played out, and the technical picture points lower.
WTI MED
Up Next
27:21
[#UrgentMarketUpdate] Even if I get criticized, now is the time to buy stocks.. 'This stock' will eventually become a strong market leader again (Surging Market) Director Park Hyun-sang
815 Money Talk (815머니톡) · Aug 05
48:02
Push to Reopen Strait of Hormuz Gains Momentum | Insight with Haslinda Amin 8/5/2026
Bloomberg Markets · Aug 05
46:02
US, Iran Near Hormuz Deal, Oil Prices Fall | Horizons Middle East & Africa 8/5/2026
Bloomberg Markets · Aug 05
10:18
Why RBI's Next Decision Could be Tricky After Rate Hold
Bloomberg Markets · Aug 05
2:56
Trump Says Strait of Hormuz Will Be Open 'Very Soon'
Bloomberg Markets · Aug 05

This Forward Guidance video, published August 05, 2026, features Jared Dillian discussing STOCKS, CASH, GLD, XLRE, U.S. Treasury curve steepener, 2-Year SOFR futures, XLF, XLV, XLP, WTI. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Jared Dillian  · Tickers: STOCKS, CASH, GLD, XLRE, U.S. Treasury curve steepener, 2-Year SOFR futures, XLF, XLV, XLP, WTI