The Bitcoin Setup Nobody Wants to Believe

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  August 10, 2026 at 18:45  |  34:41  |  Milk Road Macro
Speakers
John Gillen — Co-Host, Milk Road Macro

Summary

John Gillen discusses Bitcoin’s quiet price action, expecting a short-term bearish rejection after a possible bounce, while remaining long-term bullish due to undervaluation and accumulation. He covers the Clarity Act’s chances, a dovish Fed outlook supporting the S&P 500, and recommends pivoting from AI stocks into crypto. He also highlights Ethereum’s institutional adoption and his own buying strategy.

  • Bitcoin likely to retest resistance then break lower in the near term (bear flag).
  • Long-term Bitcoin bullish: undervalued, major asset managers shifting to 'how much to buy', Clarity Act could be a positive surprise.
  • John has been accumulating Bitcoin and Ethereum on dips.
  • Fed seen as unlikely to hike rates, next move may be a cut, which is supportive of risk assets and the S&P 500.
  • Advises rotating from AI stocks into crypto ahead of the next bull cycle.
  • Ethereum gaining institutional traction via Ethereum Institutional outreach.
  • Broad crypto adoption noted, with Standard Charter’s $4T on-chain estimate by 2028.
Ideas
John Gillen Co-Host, Milk Road Macro 3:39
Short Bitcoin, rejection and new lows.
Bullish Bitcoin thesis: author says Bitcoin is cheap/undervalued, is accumulating on dips/buying fear, and expects upside above $100K.
BTC MED
John Gillen Co-Host, Milk Road Macro 11:31
Long Ethereum on institutional adoption.
Speculative capital has rotated into AI and semiconductor stocks during this cycle, but now is the time to pivot from AI to crypto. The next crypto bull market will reward early positioning before institutional money rushes in. He advises reducing AI exposure and increasing crypto allocation, specifically Bitcoin and Ethereum.
ETH HIGH
John Gillen Co-Host, Milk Road Macro 22:07
Long S&P 500 on dovish Fed.
The Fed is unlikely to raise rates; inflation is cooling and the labor market is weaker than thought. Kevin Worsh's task forces favor dovish policy, and the next move may be a rate cut. This environment is bullish for risk assets, and JP Morgan raised its S&P 500 target to 8,000.
SPY MED
John Gillen Co-Host, Milk Road Macro 29:15
Avoid AI stocks, buy crypto instead.
Speculative capital has rotated into AI and semiconductor stocks during this cycle, but now is the time to pivot from AI to crypto. The next crypto bull market will reward early positioning before institutional money rushes in. He advises reducing AI exposure and increasing crypto allocation, specifically Bitcoin and Ethereum.
AIQ MED
Up Next
2:24
Apple playing catch-up with AI-enabled security flaw hunters
CNBC · Aug 10
35:27
Back From Vacation: The Anti Bitcoin Cycle & AI Stocks
Thread Guy · Aug 10
8:23
Shipping Traffic Is Up Despite War in Iran, Says FreightWaves CEO
Bloomberg Markets · Aug 10
5:40
Wall Street firms raise stock target
CNBC · Aug 10
3:17
NYC homeowners sue Mamdani over pied-à-terre tax rollout: Here’s what you need to know
CNBC · Aug 10

This Milk Road Macro video, published August 10, 2026, features John Gillen discussing BTC, ETH, SPY, AIQ. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: John Gillen  · Tickers: BTC, ETH, SPY, AIQ