CIG's Rubenstein Expects Housing Rents to Keep Rising

Summary

Clear Investment Group CEO Amy Rubenstein argues apartment demand is strong but was masked by oversupply. With construction starts down sharply and new supply scarce, she expects multifamily rents to rise and cap rates to compress. She sees workforce and affordable housing as especially supply-constrained, and notes existing multifamily assets are trading below replacement cost because construction costs remain elevated.

• Demand for apartments/housing has been strong but masked by prior oversupply.
• Construction starts are about 60% below the 2022 peak, reducing future supply.
• Q1 and Q2 2026 absorption ran about double new supply.
• Multifamily pricing still reflects 2020-level pessimism, creating rent and cap rate upside.
• Workforce/affordable housing has almost no new supply coming online.
• Apartment renting is more affordable than buying a house with interest rates and construction costs high.
• Construction costs are 40% above pre-pandemic due to inflation and tariffs.
• Existing multifamily properties are being bought and sold below replacement cost, making new construction tough.