Morning Call Sheet: AI boom accelerates as leverage risks build

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  August 12, 2026 at 15:19  |  7:02  |  CNBC
Speakers
Jeff Kilburg — Founder and CEO of KKM Financial, CNBC Contributor
Marco Papic — Chief Strategist, Clocktower Group
William Lee — Global Economic Advisors
Morgan Brennan — Co-Anchor, Closing Bell: Overtime / Host, Manifest Space podcast (CNBC)

Summary

The panel discussed the AI infrastructure boom after CoreWeave's strong earnings, with Jeff Kilburg bullish on CoreWeave and Marko Papic arguing falling token prices extend the AI data center capex cycle. Papic also warned that frontier model providers face open-source pressure, while William Lee highlighted opaque private credit leverage risks tied to AI/compute financing. Lee closed by saying the Fed should not raise rates because inflation is supply-driven and the labor market is cooling.

  • CoreWeave's first positive post-IPO earnings reaction supports the AI infrastructure trade.
  • Kilburg bought CoreWeave calls because AI capex is translating into profitability.
  • Papic says cheaper token prices increase AI adoption and data center demand.
  • Frontier model plays are seen as more at risk than data center picks and shovels.
  • William Lee warns private credit financing of AI/compute is opaque and could crunch.
  • Lee argues the Fed should not raise rates due to supply-side inflation and soft job creation.
Ideas
Jeff Kilburg Founder and CEO of KKM Financial, CNBC Contributor 0:59
CoreWeave earnings validate AI capex profitability
CoreWeave's post-earnings surge and 74% gross margin show that AI capex is finally translating into profitability. Kilburg bought CoreWeave calls because this is the first positive earnings reaction since the IPO and it helps validate the broader AI infrastructure spend.
CRWV HIGH
Marco Papic Chief Strategist, Clocktower Group 2:39
Cheaper AI models boost data center demand
Falling token prices are not a reason to be bearish on AI data centers; cheaper models allow more corporations to adopt AI, which increases demand for data centers and justifies continued capex. Earnings show data centers have a return on investment, so the AI capex boom is not at the bearish moment yet.
Data center picks and shovels HIGH
William Lee Global Economic Advisors 3:29
Private credit AI leverage risk is building
Private credit is becoming dangerously involved in financing new AI and compute instruments. The market is opaque and not transparent, banks are indirectly hooked in through loans and credit lines, and when rates rise and liquidity dries up it could create a crunch similar to the mortgage crisis or LTCM.
BIZD HIGH
Marco Papic Chief Strategist, Clocktower Group 5:49
Frontier model providers face open-source danger
The imminent danger in AI is in frontier model providers, not data center infrastructure, because open-source models are coming down the pipeline and token prices are collapsing, attacking the economics of closed frontier models.
Frontier model plays MED
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This CNBC video, published August 12, 2026, features Jeff Kilburg, Marco Papic, William Lee discussing CRWV, Data center picks and shovels, BIZD, Frontier model plays. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Jeff Kilburg, Marco Papic, William Lee  · Tickers: CRWV, Data center picks and shovels, BIZD, Frontier model plays