Bitcoin at $79K: Bottom Confirmed or One More Crash Coming?

Summary

Michael Terpin, CEO of Transform Ventures, joins John Gillen to discuss Bitcoin after its rally to $79K. He now assigns an 80% chance that the June/July low marked Bitcoin's bottom but expects a near-term retrace toward $70K or the $60Ks before the next bull phase. The conversation also covers his four-season Bitcoin cycle framework, gold and silver's supercycle, altcoin cycles, and custody risks in Bitcoin ETFs.

• Bitcoin is up over 20% in the period around the recording, trading near $79K.
• Michael sees 80% odds that the June/July capitulation low was the cycle bottom, but not a straight move to $100K.
• He expects a possible retrace to $70K or the $60Ks and says a weekly close above roughly $79.5K is needed for bull confirmation.
• Gold and silver are likely in a commodity supercycle that began in 2023.
• Altcoin cycles are restarting with narrative rotation, and BNB is highlighted as uniquely making new all-time highs each cycle while Ethereum underperforms.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs carry counterparty and bail-in risk because they are paper claims on Bitcoin.
• Michael's four-season Bitcoin framework suggests the next major Bitcoin peak could arrive around 2029 if the historical 35-month bottom-to-top rhythm holds.