Summary
The ISM services index edged up to 54.1, missing forecasts, as prices paid rose sharply and employment fell. Michael McKee discussed the data and a flip in momentum between services and manufacturing. He also commented on the Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement, noting continued front-end T-bill issuance and market uncertainty over future auction size increases.
- ISM services index 54.1 vs 54.5 expected, prices paid jumped to 70.3.
- Employment sub-index fell to 47.4, contrasting with manufacturing PMI improvement.
- ADP data showed leisure and hospitality shed 11k jobs, possibly due to post-World Cup layoffs.
- Treasury refunding: no changes, front-end T-bill issuance continues.
- Market on edge about eventual auction size increases and uncertain tenor allocation.