After the U.S. struck IRGC targets and Iran threatened severe retaliation, the U.S. and Iran are back in tit-for-tat fighting over the Strait of Hormuz; there is no easy off-ramp to the six-month war, keeping the risk premium in crude oil elevated.
Congress is okay with war spending and has asked for about $70 billion more; the U.S. is ramping contracts with military contractors to replenish missiles and drones used in the Iran war and for Ukraine, supporting defense contractor revenues.