u/TabMan69

Reddit r/ValueInvesting
· tracked since Apr 2026
Calls
1
Win Rate
100.0%
return
+11.2%
Calls 1 2 Posts tracked · 0.0/day
Calls
7d 0
30d 0
90d 0
Best Calls
ADBE Long +11.2%
Worst Calls
No live losers yet
Most Mentioned
ADBE ×2
Recent Calls
ADBE Long 4 months ago
Win Rate 100% Long 1 Short 0
Win Rate
7d 0%
30d 100%
90d 0%
Average Return +11.2% Long Return +11.2% Short Return -
Average Return
7d -1.7%
30d +3.9%
90d -15.1%
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Side
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Thesis
Theme
Source
ADBE Adobe Inc. Adobe Inc.
Long
Apr 01
$241.37
+11.2%
Reported financials (EPS beat, 12.8% RPO growth, 75% QoQ Firefly ARR growth) contradict the bearish narrative of AI displacement causing revenue decline. The market is mispricing ADBE due to cohort drag, an AI displacement narrative, and CEO transition uncertainty, creating a valuation opportunity. ARPU expansion from Firefly credit consumption can outpace seat erosion, leading to net revenue growth. The stock's decline post-earning is an overreaction. Failure to meet the author's Q2 conditions (RPO growth ≥10% YoY, Firefly ARR QoQ growth ≥30%); a faster-than-modeled seat decline; execution risk during CEO transition.
Reported financials (EPS beat, 12.8% RPO growth, 75% QoQ Firefly ARR growth) contradict the bearish narrative of AI displacement causing revenue decline. The market is mispricing ADBE due to cohort drag, an AI displacement narrative, and CEO transition uncertainty, creating a valuation opportunity. ARPU expansion from Firefly credit consumption can outpace seat erosion, leading to net revenue growth. The stock's decline post-earning is an overreaction. Failure to meet the author's Q2 conditions (RPO growth ≥10% YoY, Firefly ARR QoQ growth ≥30%); a faster-than-modeled seat decline; execution risk during CEO transition.
AI Software
REDDIT
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u/TabMan69 has 1 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 1 tickers since April 2026. Most covered: ADBE.