Revenue growing 20% YoY, gross profit up 27% last quarter, company recently turned profitable; expanding into grocery/gas station verticals; ruggedized hardware creates stickiness vs. iPad-based competitors. The market's SaaSpocalypse/AI-disruption fears are overblown for Toast because its hardware moat and restaurant-specific integration make switching costly. At ~18x forward P/E, the stock is mispriced relative to its growth trajectory. Long-term position – either P/E stays flat with rising earnings or price declines further, creating even greater value. The asymmetry favors the upside. “Catching a falling knife” if the sell-off continues; hypothetical AI or disruptive competitor could still erode moat; macro slowdown hurting restaurant spending; execution risk in new verticals.
Revenue growing 20% YoY, gross profit up 27% last quarter, company recently turned profitable; expanding into grocery/gas station verticals; ruggedized hardware creates stickiness vs. iPad-based competitors. The market's SaaSpocalypse/AI-disruption fears are overblown for Toast because its hardware moat and restaurant-specific integration make switching costly. At ~18x forward P/E, the stock is mispriced relative to its growth trajectory. Long-term position – either P/E stays flat with rising earnings or price declines further, creating even greater value. The asymmetry favors the upside. “Catching a falling knife” if the sell-off continues; hypothetical AI or disruptive competitor could still erode moat; macro slowdown hurting restaurant spending; execution risk in new verticals.