u/PositionJournal

Toast is a sticky, vertically integrated platform for restaurants that is growing revenue at over 20% and has recently achieved GAAP profitability, yet trades at a reasonable valuation (2x forward P/S, ~20x forward P/E). The market has overly punished the stock for a slight growth slowdown, creating an attractive entry point for a high-quality compounder, especially with potential policy tailwinds. The current valuation is a reasonable price to pay for a business with a strong competitive moat and a 20%+ growth trajectory, making it a compelling long-term investment. A recession could significantly impact restaurant spending and Toast's growth. Fierce competition from players like Clover and Square could erode market share. Any slowdown in growth below 15% would make the current valuation look expensive.

Corsair launched FlexPrime workstations and FlexGrid servers with NVIDIA Grace Blackwell, pre-loaded AI software, targeting SMBs facing rising cloud/GPU costs. Persistent compute constraints (analyst forecasts through 2029) force SMBs to seek on-premise AI, creating a new durable revenue stream for CRSR beyond cyclical gaming peripherals. CRSR’s re-rating from 0.4x to 1x P/S already materialized; further re-rating to 2x P/S is plausible as market recognizes sustainable AI infrastructure demand. AI hardware commoditization from larger players (Dell, Supermicro), slower SMB adoption, CRSR’s execution risk in enterprise sales, or easing of compute constraints.

Author calculates R2 COGS at ~$57,600 vs. realized ASP of ~$66,300, yielding ~$8,700 gross profit per vehicle, with additional savings from non-BOM and potential software revenue. R2’s launch and scaling (target 2026) can flip Rivian from burning ~$700M/quarter to positive automotive gross profit, reducing cash burn and enabling monetization of autonomy/software. If R2 succeeds, Rivian’s path to profitability and re-rating is clear; current stock price (-85% in 5 years) already prices in failure, offering asymmetric upside. R2 production delays, lower-than-expected demand, macroeconomic headwinds (recession, EV credit changes), or cost overruns could invalidate the thesis.

Hyperscalers are spending $600-700B on capex, and each data center requires >20,000 tons of steel. CMC has an 8.4% net margin, $2B in cash, and trades at an 11x forward P/E. CMC provides the foundational rebar needed before any tech is installed. Combined with 25% tariffs and federal infrastructure spending, CMC is positioned to win highly profitable contracts. Buy CMC shares or calls anticipating a multiple re-rating as it captures high-margin data center contracts. A slowdown in data center capex or intense price competition from larger players like Nucor.

Adobe's stock is down significantly (-35% YoY, -43% over 5 years), and its current strategy is to integrate AI into existing products (e.g., Firefly in Photoshop) rather than building new AI-native platforms. This "AI-integrated" approach is insufficient to combat the threat from nimbler, AI-native competitors. An internal CEO, the likely choice, will perpetuate this flawed strategy, leading to further market share erosion and stock underperformance. The author believes Adobe is on a path to "certain death" unless a radical, external-led pivot occurs. Betting on an internal, "safe" CEO choice implies the company will fail to adapt, making it a compelling short. The board could hire a visionary external CEO. The existing product suite's network effects and stickiness could prove more durable than anticipated. The "AI-integrated" strategy might be successful enough to retain customers and grow revenue.