Netflix’s FCF yield is 4.3% at current price; stock down ~50% from peak; ads business doubled YoY; low-teens growth projected. At 4.3% FCF yield the market assumes permanent stagnation, but ads and pricing power support continued growth—creating a margin of safety. NFLX is a high-quality business trading at a deep discount; author is selling puts at $65 and plans to add more at $60 (5% FCF yield). Subscriber growth stalls, ad revenue disappoints, or competition intensifies; guidance could continue to weaken.
Netflix’s FCF yield is 4.3% at current price; stock down ~50% from peak; ads business doubled YoY; low-teens growth projected. At 4.3% FCF yield the market assumes permanent stagnation, but ads and pricing power support continued growth—creating a margin of safety. NFLX is a high-quality business trading at a deep discount; author is selling puts at $65 and plans to add more at $60 (5% FCF yield). Subscriber growth stalls, ad revenue disappoints, or competition intensifies; guidance could continue to weaken.