u/I_killed_the_kraken

US crude inventories are at a 45-year low, 43 days of supply remain, and the Strait of Hormuz is shut — all pointing to a physical supply crunch. The market’s $71/bbl year-end price estimate ignores the imminent shortfall, creating a mispricing that will correct as shortages hit headlines. Long call options on crude oil to profit from the expected price spike driven by forced demand rationing or a geopolitical resolution. A surprise diplomatic deal to reopen Hormuz, strategic petroleum reserve releases, or a recession that crushes demand could invalidate the thesis.

The author explicitly says “calls first thing Monday morning” despite listing broad market risks. This implies a belief that negative sentiment is overdone and a short-term rally (likely index-wide) will occur at Monday’s open. Buy short-dated calls on SPY as a contrarian play against the bearish macro narrative. Continued selling pressure from illiquidity, worse-than-expected data over the weekend, or failure of the “calls Monday” meme to materialize.

VITL trades at P/E ~8.8, has negligible debt and positive margins; stock is down 76% from ATH due to avian flu, but egg prices have dropped 97% from recent highs and appear to be bottoming. If egg prices stabilize or rise, VITL’s premium brand should see revenue recovery; combined with broader food inflation and government attention (Palantir-USDA deal), shortages could drive margins higher. The author believes the stock is deeply undervalued relative to normalized earnings and that a consolidation pattern is forming for a trend reversal. Avian flu resurgence, further declines in egg demand, rising chicken feed costs (fertilizer shortage could raise feed prices), potential recession cutting premium food spending.