u/Bluewolf1983

Data center construction is significantly delayed, with capacity coming online at half the rate of NVIDIA's GPU sales, indicating a potential inventory buildup. A quarter or two of inventory digestion would be devastating to AI stock prices in the short term, and supply chain issues from the Iran war could exacerbate delays. NVIDIA's stock price is at risk due to a mismatch between GPU supply and the delayed installation of AI infrastructure. Data center construction delays could be resolved faster than expected; sustained massive demand could absorb the inventory.

The war in Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global oil supply chains. The author's base case is that the Strait remains closed for some time, keeping oil prices elevated until supply chains normalize. The supply-side shock from the conflict creates a near-term opportunity for elevated oil prices. The Strait of Hormuz could reopen sooner than expected; global demand destruction could occur.