▶ Full Post Text
# General Update
TheΒ [last update](https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/1pxcvth/yolo_update_no_longer_going_all_in_on_steel/)Β was the end of 2025 update where I went risk-off into long duration bonds and avoided an instinct to go all-in on $NVDA. That ended up being a good call but I ended up unable to avoid the temptation to buy shares in various Magnificent 7 stocks as they got pummeled this year. Somehow I avoided getting trapped as my "buy the dip, panic sell on first sign of green over being greedy" worked out - but I do realize I've been pushing my luck.
This update will focus on current macro thoughts, update the numbers, and outline current positioning. My overall take is bearish and this tends to mark interim bottoms in the market. For the usual disclaimer up front,Β **the following is not financial advice and I could be wrong about anything in this post.**Β This is just my thought process for how I am playing my personal investment portfolio.
# The Iran War
I don't have that much to say here beyond the following blog post from 10 days ago by a military history professor being the best analysis I've read on it: [https://acoup.blog/2026/03/25/miscellanea-the-war-in-iran/](https://acoup.blog/2026/03/25/miscellanea-the-war-in-iran/) . It helps to explain why a peace deal has been difficult for the USA to obtain.
How long does the Strait of Hormuz remain closed to disrupt supply chains? Does the war escalate even further? I don't have insider knowledge here. I do think that eventually the Strait is opened sometime in the next year that will allow supply chains to normalize. My base is basically the oil remains elevated for some time along with other resources becoming scarcer during this time. This will have an economic impact worldwide but long term inflation will reset after the supply side shock resolves.
This also has dominated the narrative and is all the market is reacting to right now. Despite the impact, I don't think the price of oil is the primary market risk. Should we rally significantly on the Strait eventually opening, I would view it as a dead cat bounce considering the real issue of...
# The Increasing AI Bubble Risks
The AI sector is in full-on bull mode as memory prices have spiked, GPU instance rental prices are going up, and startup valuations have continued upward. The public bear cases by people like Michael Burry are weak. Inside this narrative bubble, it seems like one can't lose money here and why I was tempted to go heavily into $NVDA in my end of 2025 update.
One should listen to multiple perspectives and there is one I've started to pay attention to: infamous AI hater [Ed Zitron](https://www.wheresyoured.at/). He has absolute confidence that AI is a bubble and write like a madman about why it should fail. His passion for the subject means he does his research. For example, he reported about OpenAI refusing to be part of the Stargate Abilene expansion weeks before it became public knowledge:
* His [tweet on February 16th](https://x.com/edzitron/status/2023563676888994295).
* I heard him talk about it on some Youtube video interview rather than this source. Not going to try to find which one and timestamp.
* On March 8th, major news sources then reported this. \[[Toms Hardware Sample Source](https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/openais-massive-stargate-data-center-canceled-as-firm-cant-reach-terms-with-oracle-operator-struggles-with-reliability-issues-meta-said-to-be-interested-in-snatching-excess-capacity)\]
Why should one care about this? It affects stocks as information spreads and traders react to it. While his rants are verbose and contain many points I disagree with, his research is legit. The main concerns that seem to have upcoming impact are:
**Delayed Data Centers**
On his [March 24th blog post](https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-industry-is-lying-to-you/), he outlined how actual capacity coming online greatly lagged what had been announced. The main part of interest to investors is that actual capacity coming online is about half of what $NVDA is selling. Put for the exact quote: "It Is Currently Taking 6 Months To Install A Quarter of NVIDIAβs GPU Sales".
This indicates inventory buildup is happening as the expected speed of building a datacenter has lagged actual reality when ordering components. While it is possible the blockers delaying datacenters are resolved, things like the war in Iran hitting supply chains makes it more likely the delays will only get worse. A quarter or two of inventory digestion of GPUs would be devastating to AI stock prices short term.
Now one may question whether his information is accurate. But the mainstream media caught up to report on April 2nd that "[Almost Half of US Data Centers That Were Supposed to Open This Year Slated to Be Canceled or Delayed](https://futurism.com/science-energy/data-centers-construction-supply)". This has been buried by Iran headlines and hasn't really moved stock prices as likely no one has been dedicated enough to do the math then on how that impacted GPU installation timelines.
(Additional note: instead of the blog post, he does talk about things in a Youtube interview [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zud-EfsmLvA)).
**Insane Subsidized Pricing Beyond What Uber / Lyft Did**
His most recent free [blog post on March 31st](https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-subprime-ai-crisis-is-here/) is long like most and has many things one could disagree with. But it contains one argument he has been making for some time: AI usage is inflated due to heavy subsidization. Users are being provided with about $3 to $8 of compute for every dollar they spend. Despite gains in efficiency from better hardware over time, the cost of providing AI services has only gone up as AI functionality has become more complex.
In order for these companies to become profitable, prices will likely need to go up by 400% or more. Will users be able to tolerate that level of price increase? One might view this as a "yes" but I think there will be initial backlash against this when companies try to start generating profit. Especially corporations that are being asked to see their IT spend go up that significantly.
Jensen Huang recently stated that engineers should use AI tokens worth half of their salary ([source](https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/jensen-huang-says-nvidia-engineers-should-use-ai-tokens-worth-half-their-annual-salary-every-year-to-be-fully-productive-compares-not-using-ai-to-using-paper-and-pencil-for-designing-chips)). Most large corporations balk about giving their engineers decent machines for development in order to penny pitch at the cost of increased developer productivity (time lost on compiling / building / application startup / etc). Expectations that they will open the wallet for token spending when the subsidizes end seem hard to believe. It might happen if it is justified with headcount savings - but mass layoffs to pay for unsubsidized AI gives its own short term negative market impact.
**IPOs Looking For Bagholders**
This one isn't from Ed Zitron but belongs in this section. SpaceX that contains xAI is looking to IPO for $2 Trillion ([source](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spacex-targets-more-2-trillion-195553910.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8)). The Nasdaq just changed its rules to allow SpaceX to be included after just 15 days at an increased weighting ([source](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1s9dsma/major_nasdaq100_rule_changes_confirmed_pay/)). The issue is that the math on SpaceX makes absolutely zero sense. None. It will make the stock in the index that had the highest P/S ratio known as $PLTR look cheap by comparison. This video by Patrick Boyle does a great job breaking down how even the most rosiest future picture for the company wouldn't justify the valuation years from now: [https://youtu.be/8rS3fTbC7TE](https://youtu.be/8rS3fTbC7TE) . $TSLA is considered expensive at a $1.1 Trillion market cap and it makes multiples times more revenue per year than SpaceX.
This isn't a controversial take. The source I linked to for the Nasdaq change is the post on Reddit about it which has everyone pointing out how this is a blatant manipulation of the market indexes to allow SpaceX insiders to profit. The situation is like when $RIVN did its IPO at the height of Electric Vehicle hype at a valuation that made zero sense to sell to retail bag holders and then quickly cratered as the reality of math hit it - only worse due to the market indexes being in play.
OpenAI and Anthropic should also IPO this year. With these valuations being pricy for unprofitable tech, I just view these as catalysts to mark at least an interim top for this market segment.
**Reduced ROI for Increasing Capex**
The last point is just that most hyperscalers are now issuing debt to expand their datacenters. This makes it difficult for growth to continue to increase. Worse yet is that every dollar spent now is resulting in **less** datacenter capacity in return. This is due to cost of everything required to build a datacenter increasing. One example is that memory capex costs have gone from 8% in 2024 to an estimated 30% today: [https://x.com/SemiAnalysis\_/status/2039870546582630470](https://x.com/SemiAnalysis_/status/2039870546582630470)
This just furthers the eventual price increases the will be required for AI products to make a profit.
# The Job Market
Over the past six months, the USA economy has added an 15,000 jobs on average ([source](https://bsky.app/profile/nicktimiraos.bsky.social/post/3milqcr4as22c)). The unemployment rate has remained relatively stable as the breakeven rate is estimated to be around 0 added jobs with the restrictions on USA immigration currently in place. However, it feels worse to most as over the past year, the USA has added 680,000 healthcare and social assistance jobs while losing 420,000 jobs in everything else. I guess the new saying of "learn to code" should be "learn to change a bed pan"?
The US tech sector in particular has lost more jobs than the 2008 and 2020 recessions ([source](https://bsky.app/profile/josephpolitano.bsky.social/post/3milqwyi22s23)). So while the job market overall has been neutral, there is discrepancy in how segments are doing within it.
The blog post does a great job breaking things down: [https://macromostly.substack.com/p/bls-jobs-report-recap-march-137](https://macromostly.substack.com/p/bls-jobs-report-recap-march-137) . Of note is that this is before the impact of higher oil prices that is already raising airfares and reducing the free cash of consumers. It isn't hard to imagine that reducing enough jobs for us to no longer be in a neutral job market state.
# Bonds
I've struggled with how long duration bonds should react. Cem Karsan (π₯) sees the 10 year yield hitting 7% ([source](https://youtu.be/pLdiodoDK8k)). But I've also heard others argue that that while the oil supply imbalance will initially cause an inflation spike, long term inflation will actually be less once that supply is restored due to the economic damage done.
I've come to favor that latter argument given the state of the AI trade right now. Short term yields might go up - but I don't see the inflation persisting long term once supply routes resume. I also just don't think the USA debt can take yields above 5% for long.
# Current Positioning And Thoughts
My expectations of the above don't have me continuing to try to "buy the dip". Many are trapped in megacaps at higher prices and the AI trade macro seems to have some real red flags coming up. The Iran War looks to be a short term negative and while a rally may result from an eventual resolution, there are enough other issues that I don't view that rally having long lasting legs. We have AI IPOs about to be dumped on the market at valuations that cannot be justified.
Given that, I'm back in bonds again. 20 year bonds for my taxable accounts and 30 year bonds for my non taxable ones. Altogether that is yielding a combined $128,000 per year across all of my accounts (up from $105,000 at the end of 2025). If I'm wrong and bond yields go up, I can still re-invest that yield. If bond yields fall to stimulate the economy as oil supply resumes, I can still sell that for a minor profit and switch to stocks that are likely at a lower level yet.
So while trades have happened to try participating in these initial market pullbacks, I'm back to where I ended 2025 in bonds and waiting for a better equity entry should it present itself.
# Current Realized Gains
**Fidelity (Taxable)**
* Realized YTD gain of $228,936. Total account value: $1,160,978.62.
[Taken from Active Fidelity Pro](https://preview.redd.it/1pi46k156atg1.png?width=385&format=png&auto=webp&s=95c6a8568c6dfc87877d99b3bbed54ddb407d206)
**Fidelity (IRA)**
* Realized YTD gain of $18,312. Total account value: $79,613.69.
[Taken from Active Fidelity Pro](https://preview.redd.it/v3xb24jf6atg1.png?width=388&format=png&auto=webp&s=3d94c57e0db1843b8e2a93c7b4dde517cd46052d)
**Fidelity (401k - Usually Not Included and Excluded From Totals)**
* Realized YTD gain of $38,525. Total account value: $885,702.
[Taken From Active Fidelity Pro](https://preview.redd.it/d4k7k2zi6atg1.png?width=388&format=png&auto=webp&s=9804324e410d035921e54da614add89f0ceb92f3)
**IBKR (Interactive Brokers)**
* Realized YTD gain of $241,396.57. Total account value: 904,303.
[Taken from Portfolio Analyst. Total is the \\"Net Asset Change\\" change value minus the \\"Net Deposits\\" amount.](https://preview.redd.it/24ctfxez6atg1.png?width=619&format=png&auto=webp&s=df91ffef1835015fb08ae344f08e7222351c20a3)
**Overall Totals (excluding 401k)**
* YTD Gain ofΒ **488,644.57**
* 2025 Total Gain ofΒ **943,502.45**
* 2024 Total Loss:Β **-$249,168.84**
* 2023 Total Gains:Β **$416,565.21**
* 2022 Total Gains:Β **$173,065.52**
* 2021 Total Gains:Β **$205,242.19**
* ~~-------------------------------------~~
* Gains since trading:Β **$1,977,851.1**
# Conclusions
I don't think I'll do quarterly updates normally. I just felt like writing an update since I think the market ignored some recent bearish AI trade news due to the Iran war and everyone is laser focused on trying to catch the rally from the Iran war resolution. I personally don't think that the Iran War is what is preventing the market from making ATH. It is an economic negative - but its resolution will still leave many other underlying issues that have been bubbling under the surface.
I've been lucky that my attempt to "buy the dip" didn't end up with me being burned. I do still plan to buy shares at some point since equities tend to outperform bonds long term but I don't think that time is yet. Even if I'm wrong, the yield from the bonds is still insane given the size my portfolio has reached. The penalty for patience is small for me now and so I can just see what happens yet as I just try to play things safe.
I still have my account onΒ [Bluesky](https://bsky.app/profile/bluewolf1983.bsky.social)Β for sporadic random updates otherwise if anyone feels inclined to follow me there. Feel free to comment to correct me if you disagree with anything I've written as I'm always open to reconsidering my current thinking. As always, these are just my personal opinions on what I'm doing with my portfolio. That's all I have time to write so take care!