Calls
1
u/Aulipe
Reddit r/ValueInvesting
Win Rate
100.0%
return
+10.8%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Short
Apr 20
$46.24
+10.8%
A strict DCF model, using a 10.63% WACC and a recovery growth rate, yields an intrinsic value of $12.16 per share, ~74% below the current market price. This massive valuation gap suggests the market is pricing in a flawless and rapid turnaround under new CEO Elliott Hill, which the author's analysis deems mathematically unjustifiable. The stock is a potential value trap (overvalued based on nostalgia, not fundamentals), creating an opportunity to short or avoid. The new CEO executes a turnaround faster/better than modeled; the author's WACC or growth assumptions are too severe; brand strength drives higher sustainable margins than projected.
A strict DCF model, using a 10.63% WACC and a recovery growth rate, yields an intrinsic value of $12.16 per share, ~74% below the current market price. This massive valuation gap suggests the market is pricing in a flawless and rapid turnaround under new CEO Elliott Hill, which the author's analysis deems mathematically unjustifiable. The stock is a potential value trap (overvalued based on nostalgia, not fundamentals), creating an opportunity to short or avoid. The new CEO executes a turnaround faster/better than modeled; the author's WACC or growth assumptions are too severe; brand strength drives higher sustainable margins than projected.
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u/Aulipe has 1 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 1 tickers since April 2026. Most covered: NKE.
