The freezing of Russian foreign reserves has eroded trust in holding foreign sovereign bonds as reserves. Countries will naturally shift reserves back to gold, as was the norm before 1980. This flow out of Treasuries into gold benefits gold prices, and the metal will act as a hedge in a higher-inflation regime.
Political shift toward wage growth, full employment, and heavy government spending without matching taxation will drive inflation and shrink foreign demand for US Treasuries. The era of building large pools of capital that suppressed rates is ending, and the 10-year Treasury yield is headed to 10% as real rates need to be around 3% to keep capital in deposits rather than real assets.
Modern economic growth is driven by semiconductors and compute, making them the new oil. AI capex by large tech companies is defensive spending to protect their moats against disruption, and they are unlikely to cut spending because the first to stop investing loses. Supply is restricted by export controls on China, keeping chip prices elevated.