Mark Franklin

Memory fundamentals remain very strong, with the supply crunch extending well into 2028. Speculative froth is cooling off, but the earnings outlook is robust and the uptrend is intact. The market will try to price a peak in the growth cycle later, but for now the memory trade is likely to regain vigor.

Memory fundamentals remain very strong, with the supply crunch extending well into 2028. Speculative froth is cooling off, but the earnings outlook is robust and the uptrend is intact. The market will try to price a peak in the growth cycle later, but for now the memory trade is likely to regain vigor.

Mainland Chinese traders, facing stimulus expectations and limited overseas options, are leaning toward bonds, keeping Chinese bond yields compressed and the currency well-supported.

US refiners benefit from rising global refinery spreads while sourcing feedstock at a discount due to abundant onshore crude, making US energy plays attractive in the short term from the supply and price shock.

Hong Kong and China equities present a creeping outperformer opportunity due to attractive valuations compared to high-momentum markets like Japan and Korea, and China has the ability to stimulate if needed.

Inflation-linked bonds (TIPS) provide diversification and protection if rate pricing moves higher, as the bond market sends alarm signals and yields remain elevated.

Uranium is interesting over the longer term as governments seek energy resilience and expand nuclear power, driven by potential permanent changes in oil supply dynamics from the Strait of Hormuz disruption.

Foreign investors sold $110 billion rupees of Indian IT stocks in early February. Mark Franklin notes that business models predicated on "outsourcing relatively commoditized software development" are at risk. This is the "Second-Order" AI trade. As AI writes code, the need for massive human labor arbitrage in coding (the core business of Indian IT majors) diminishes. Companies will "self-fund" AI initiatives rather than outsourcing. SHORT Indian IT Services (Infosys, Wipro) as they face an existential threat from Generative AI productivity gains. These companies may successfully pivot to becoming AI implementers, retaining clients through legacy relationships.

Foreign investors sold $110 billion rupees of Indian IT stocks in early February. Mark Franklin notes that business models predicated on "outsourcing relatively commoditized software development" are at risk. This is the "Second-Order" AI trade. As AI writes code, the need for massive human labor arbitrage in coding (the core business of Indian IT majors) diminishes. Companies will "self-fund" AI initiatives rather than outsourcing. SHORT Indian IT Services (Infosys, Wipro) as they face an existential threat from Generative AI productivity gains. These companies may successfully pivot to becoming AI implementers, retaining clients through legacy relationships.