Gargi Chaudhuri

Investors should go back to focusing on the AI theme and the growth part of the economy, as tech and communication services have seen positive earnings revisions and the AI-driven investment is existential and ongoing regardless of Middle East events.

With core PCE peaking, shelter and tariff inflation decelerating, gasoline prices falling, and GDP Now at 5%, this is a great time to be in parts of the equity market; investors should stay up in quality, focus on US large-cap, and favor durable infrastructure, energy security, and AI.

Energy security is a key durable investment theme alongside AI, benefiting from geopolitical chokepoints and rising demand for secure supply.

AI is a durable growth theme; solid earnings and accelerating monetization mean pullbacks are healthy buying opportunities in this secular growth sector.

To hedge the stock-bond correlation, use the iShares Alternative ETF (I ALT) to seek absolute return without market beta, as traditional bond diversification may not work in the current resilient, AI-driven economy with sticky inflation.

Commodities provide inflation protection in a high-oil environment.

Emerging markets offer AI exposure (45% tech) and diversification beyond the US.

Securitized markets (via an income bank) provide income in a portfolio.

Add TIPS for inflation protection as oil-driven inflation persists.

Chaudhuri states the U.S. is a net energy exporter, is considered more resilient, and is a "safe haven" during shocks. She notes fundamentals (earnings growth, real GDP acceleration) are still supportive. The U.S. market's relative insulation from the energy shock and its strong corporate fundamentals mean any pullback related to the conflict could present a buying opportunity for investors with a longer-term horizon. U.S. equities (proxied by SPX) are the preferred equity market in this environment, and dips can be used to build diversified portfolios that include U.S. stocks and bonds. The conflict escalates to a degree that causes a severe global growth shock, overwhelming U.S. resilience.

BlackRock notes that despite market skittishness, economic fundamentals (investor production, labor market) remain strong. However, clients have a structural under-allocation to Emerging Markets (EM). The "skittishness" is positioning-driven, not fundamental. The trade is to diversify *within* AI (moving from hyperscalers to the physical infrastructure/semiconductors value chain) and rotate into EM where valuations have compressed while growth remains robust. LONG diversification plays (Infra/Semis) and EM catch-up trades. Escalation in geopolitical tensions strengthening the USD, hurting EM.

Stock/Bond correlations are becoming less reliable as a hedge in the current cycle. With traditional 60/40 hedges failing to provide adequate protection during risk-off events (like the current geopolitical slide), investors must seek alternative diversifiers like precious metals and liquid alts to dampen volatility. LONG Gold and Silver as portfolio ballasts. High real rates increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Stock/Bond correlations are becoming less reliable as a hedge in the current cycle. With traditional 60/40 hedges failing to provide adequate protection during risk-off events (like the current geopolitical slide), investors must seek alternative diversifiers like precious metals and liquid alts to dampen volatility. LONG Gold and Silver as portfolio ballasts. High real rates increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

BlackRock notes that despite market skittishness, economic fundamentals (investor production, labor market) remain strong. However, clients have a structural under-allocation to Emerging Markets (EM). The "skittishness" is positioning-driven, not fundamental. The trade is to diversify *within* AI (moving from hyperscalers to the physical infrastructure/semiconductors value chain) and rotate into EM where valuations have compressed while growth remains robust. LONG diversification plays (Infra/Semis) and EM catch-up trades. Escalation in geopolitical tensions strengthening the USD, hurting EM.