David Zervos

Zervos states that the "Economic Armageddon" predictions for both inflation and growth "have actually not played out," noting that CPI is back to 2.4% and GDP is "running at close to 3%." The bear case of stagflation or deep recession has been invalidated by the data. A backdrop of 3% growth combined with normalized inflation creates a "Goldilocks" environment that supports risk assets and broad equity valuations. LONG US Equities as the macro fundamentals remain resilient. Unexpected resurgence in inflation or a sudden deterioration in labor market data.

Oil prices have returned to pre-Iran conflict levels from early March, and momentum suggests they are headed lower soon.

Zervos states that the "Economic Armageddon" predictions for both inflation and growth "have actually not played out," noting that CPI is back to 2.4% and GDP is "running at close to 3%." The bear case of stagflation or deep recession has been invalidated by the data. A backdrop of 3% growth combined with normalized inflation creates a "Goldilocks" environment that supports risk assets and broad equity valuations. LONG US Equities as the macro fundamentals remain resilient. Unexpected resurgence in inflation or a sudden deterioration in labor market data.

Zervos observes that "there is some reshoring. It's happening slowly" and that trade supply lines are moving. While not an overnight revolution, the structural shift toward reshoring supply chains provides a long-term tailwind for domestic industrial and manufacturing companies. LONG Industrials to capture the slow but steady value creation from supply chain localization. Higher labor costs in the US or aggressive tariff wars disrupting supply chains further.