Dana Telsey

* WMT: Described as "the best out there," seeing sales growth and expected margin upticks in 2026. * TJX: Aggressively opening stores (100/year) with strong marketing; off-price model fits the current consumer. * GPS: "The Gap is back." New creative direction has successfully blended product and marketing; stores are being updated. * RL/FIGS: Ralph Lauren raising unit prices successfully; FIGS gaining brand awareness via Team USA/Olympics partnership. In a "K-shaped" economy, capital flows to two places: massive scale/value (WMT, TJX) and brands with high heat/momentum (GPS, RL). These companies have proven execution in the current macro environment. LONG (Quality/Momentum). General consumer spending slowdown; supply chain disruptions from tariffs.

Levi Strauss's guidance is conservative; women's business growing double digits, men's business showing growth, Beyond Yoga strong, expansion into tops and skirts, fewer promotions and more full-price selling, and effective marketing provide significant upside.

Ross Stores has a long runway for growth: 17% sales increase, store expansion particularly on the East Coast, transformation through marketing and store improvements, and benefits from trade down as consumers seek better brands at value prices.

Victoria's Secret is showing low double-digit increases in core categories for the first time in a while, driven by a renewed focus on newness and innovation that attracts newer customers.

Consumer discretionary is set to perform well in the second half of 2026 because the consumer is still spending despite inflation and geopolitical headwinds, boosted by upcoming sporting events, tax refund benefits, and potential tariff refunds added back.

* WMT: Described as "the best out there," seeing sales growth and expected margin upticks in 2026. * TJX: Aggressively opening stores (100/year) with strong marketing; off-price model fits the current consumer. * GPS: "The Gap is back." New creative direction has successfully blended product and marketing; stores are being updated. * RL/FIGS: Ralph Lauren raising unit prices successfully; FIGS gaining brand awareness via Team USA/Olympics partnership. In a "K-shaped" economy, capital flows to two places: massive scale/value (WMT, TJX) and brands with high heat/momentum (GPS, RL). These companies have proven execution in the current macro environment. LONG (Quality/Momentum). General consumer spending slowdown; supply chain disruptions from tariffs.

* WMT: Described as "the best out there," seeing sales growth and expected margin upticks in 2026. * TJX: Aggressively opening stores (100/year) with strong marketing; off-price model fits the current consumer. * GPS: "The Gap is back." New creative direction has successfully blended product and marketing; stores are being updated. * RL/FIGS: Ralph Lauren raising unit prices successfully; FIGS gaining brand awareness via Team USA/Olympics partnership. In a "K-shaped" economy, capital flows to two places: massive scale/value (WMT, TJX) and brands with high heat/momentum (GPS, RL). These companies have proven execution in the current macro environment. LONG (Quality/Momentum). General consumer spending slowdown; supply chain disruptions from tariffs.

* WMT: Described as "the best out there," seeing sales growth and expected margin upticks in 2026. * TJX: Aggressively opening stores (100/year) with strong marketing; off-price model fits the current consumer. * GPS: "The Gap is back." New creative direction has successfully blended product and marketing; stores are being updated. * RL/FIGS: Ralph Lauren raising unit prices successfully; FIGS gaining brand awareness via Team USA/Olympics partnership. In a "K-shaped" economy, capital flows to two places: massive scale/value (WMT, TJX) and brands with high heat/momentum (GPS, RL). These companies have proven execution in the current macro environment. LONG (Quality/Momentum). General consumer spending slowdown; supply chain disruptions from tariffs.