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11:30
Jul 29 ◎

SW FY2026 Q2 Watch

Smurfit WestRock PLC (SW) FY2026 Q2 Earnings Call

SW FDX UPS JBHT IP ▾

Tony Smurfit

Management's tone is clearly improving, citing the strongest paper markets in decades, fully booked mills, successful price increases, and a strong platform for cost recovery into 2027, offsetting near-term freight headwinds.

"Global paper markets today are as strong as I have seen in my lifetime within this industry. What we previously characterized as a generally better industry environment is now a significantly stronger and better operating environment."

SW WATCH

Tony Smurfit

Freight costs are a $300M headwind, driven by Middle East conflict and domestic transport shortages, causing logistics delays and delivery disruptions. — Persistent freight inflation and capacity constraints suggest continued pricing power for logistics providers and potential cost pass-through pressures for manufacturers.

"That's a function not only of the price of diesel, but it's also a function of availability of transportation. And that is creating some issues for delivery on time and things like that."

FDX WATCH UPS WATCH JBHT WATCH

Tony Smurfit

Box plant profitability has swung from heavily loss-making to small EBITDA positive (3-4% margins), showing rapid operational turnaround progress. — This indicates the box industry's pricing dynamics are improving enough to support already-announced and future containerboard price hikes, bolstering the entire sector's margin trajectory.

"We've turned it from being heavily loss-making to small EBITDA positive, somewhere in the 3% to 4% range, depending on the month."

IP WATCH PKG WATCH

HIGH

11:30
Apr 30 ◎

SW FY2026 Q1 Watch

Smurfit WestRock PLC (SW) FY2026 Q1 Earnings Call

SW ▾

Tony Smurfit

Management's tone is cautiously optimistic, with strengthening demand, price increases, and a reaffirmed full-year outlook despite cost inflation and a weather-hit Q1.

"Today, we see a stronger and generally better industry outlook. Assuming these conditions prevail, we expect to deliver an adjusted EBITDA for the quarter two of between 1.1 and 1.2 billion."

SW WATCH

HIGH

12:30
Feb 11 ◎

SW FY2025 Q4 Watch

Smurfit WestRock PLC (SW) FY2025 Q4 Earnings Call

PKG IP ▾

Ken Bowles

Management stated the 2026 guidance is based 'where everything is now' and has not baked in any paper price increases, including the recent North American price hikes. This embeds conservative downside protection and potential upside if price increases stick. — If the price hikes stick, SW and its competitors (IP, PKG) could see earnings above current guidance, a potential positive surprise for the sector.

"we feel comfortable with the 5 to 5.3 based on where everything is now without baking in anything else."

PKG WATCH

Ken Bowles

SW is reducing its production footprint by closing the SBS machine in La Tuque and will continue to proactively evaluate further closures while being 'grade agnostic'. This signals a focus on cutting high-cost capacity in a structurally challenged SBS market, potentially rationalizing the market for players like IP. — Reducing industry-wide SBS capacity could improve pricing dynamics and better utilize remaining assets for competitors like IP.

"we feel comfortable with the 5 to 5.3 based on where everything is now without baking in anything else."

IP WATCH

MED

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