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14:41
Apr 16
Apr 16
TSM
NVDA
SNPS
INTC
XLU
▾
Ignore short-term positioning; 3-year capex guide and 50%+ AI CAGR imply structural, multi-year earnings beats.
The market is mispricing TSMC's terminal growth by focusing on consumer electronics softness, missing that AI demand is forcing unprecedented mid-cycle 3nm capacity expansion. The second-order effect is that TSMC's pricing power will expand as they remain the sole bottleneck for the "higher 50s" AI accelerator CAGR. Risk is a broader macro slowdown impacting non-HPC segments.
"So we expect the CapEx in the next few years, in the next 3 years, will be significantly higher than the past 3 years."
TSM LONG
The threat of custom silicon (ASICs/TPUs) eating Nvidia's margins is a mirage heavily concentrated in one client.
The market overestimates the competitive threat of hyperscaler custom silicon, failing to realize that TPU/Trainium volumes are artificially propped up by Anthropic's compute-for-equity deals. Nvidia's programmable architecture remains the only viable platform for rapid algorithmic invention, securing their moat. Risk is regulatory intervention or a sudden drop in hyperscaler capex.
"Without Anthropic, why would there be any TPU growth at all? It’s 100% Anthropic."
NVDA LONG
AI agents will act as synthetic engineers, massively inflating seat licenses for EDA software.
Wall Street models software revenue based on human headcount growth, completely failing to price in machine-to-machine software licensing. As AI agents begin autonomously using tools like Synopsys, EDA companies will see an exponential, unmodeled explosion in "seat" instances. Risk is the timeline for agentic reliability taking longer than expected.
"It’s very likely that the number of instances of Synopsys Design Compiler is going to skyrocket, along with the number of agents using the floor planners..."
SNPS LONG
Intel Foundry Services (IFS) turnaround is structurally capped by a 4-5 year physical reality check.
TSMC's commentary is a direct shot at Intel's aggressive foundry turnaround narrative, reminding the market that physical fabs require 4-5 years to build and ramp. The market is likely pricing in an Intel catch-up that is physically impossible in the near term, especially as TSMC locks up next-gen LPU business now. Risk is massive US government subsidies artificially propping up Intel's margins.
"Again, let me say that it takes 2 to 3 years to build a new fab, no shortcuts. And it takes another 1 to 2 years to ramp it up."
INTC SHORT
With CoWoS packaging bottlenecks resolved, the primary constraint on AI scaling shifts to US grid capacity.
Jensen explicitly noted that CoWoS supply is now in "fairly good shape," meaning the physical bottleneck for AI scaling has shifted from silicon packaging to power generation. The second-order trade is going long utilities and power infrastructure, as hyperscalers will be forced to fund massive grid upgrades and secure premium-priced power purchase agreements. Risk is rising interest rates compressing utility multiples.
"We’re limited by energy, but we’ve got a lot of people working on that. We’ve got to not make energy a bottleneck for our country."
XLU LONG
18:26
Apr 14
Apr 14
EWY
▾
Used as a vehicle to gain exposure to memory chip stocks, which are benefiting from rapidly improving fundamentals, explosive AI demand, and constrained supply.
"Ever since I made a bull call on memory chip stocks using the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (ticker: EWY) as the vehicle in mid-February, the ETF is up modestly - up about 9%."
EWY LONG
20:32
Apr 09
Apr 09
14:55
Apr 09
Apr 09
15:00
Apr 01
Apr 01
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