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13:15
Sep 03

Taiki Maeda

Zcash: The Trade of the Cycle.

BTC LIT Crypto infrastructure/VC tokens HYPE ZEC ▾

Taiki Maeda

Crypto bull market early; Bitcoin supported.

Crypto is in the early innings of a bull market because the debasement trade has returned. Gold and Bitcoin pumped after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent moved to buy long-term bonds, and gold-to-Bitcoin correlation hit new all-time highs, signaling non-crypto money now treats Bitcoin as a store of value. Crypto natives are also too bearish and underallocated, so sideline capital should continue supporting Bitcoin and broader crypto upside.

BTC LONG

Taiki Maeda

Within crypto, reallocate to quality assets.

Within crypto, capital is rotating in a K-shaped way away from last cycle's broken infrastructure and VC tokens into good assets: store-of-value assets like Bitcoin and Zcash, and buyback/cash-flow tokens like Hyperliquid and Lighter. These winners can outperform even while Bitcoin chops, so the trade is to own quality assets and avoid dead, over-supplied tokens.

LIT LONG Crypto infrastructure/VC tokens AVOID HYPE LONG

Taiki Maeda

Zcash is asymmetric privacy store-of-value long.

Zcash is a proof-of-work privacy coin with Bitcoin-like 21 million supply and halving cycles. After nearly a decade of distribution and declining inflation, it is breaking out while shielded-pool usage is rising. ZEC is only about 1% of Bitcoin's market cap, with room to close toward a silver-like 10-15% store-of-value role. A spot ETF is live, its quantum roadmap is framed as stronger than Bitcoin, and surviving the Orchard exploit is treated as anti-fragile trust evidence. Taiki holds the majority of his net worth in the trade and argues higher prices reflexively improve privacy capacity and network effects, so $1,000 is not resistance.

ZEC LONG

HIGH

22:09
Aug 21

Taiki Maeda

Bitcoin Bottom is in. Why ZEC will go Parabolic.

ZEC BTC HYPE LIT VAR.OL 1ST ▾

Taiki Maeda

Zcash reflexive privacy flywheel drives upside.

Zcash is positioned for explosive upside because it survived the orchard pool vulnerability and became anti-fragile after the Ironwood upgrade; its reflexive privacy flywheel improves the anonymity set as shielded pool capital grows, the largest miner is not selling, Grayscale's ZCSH discount is nearly gone and may be front-running a ZEC ETF, and ZEC/BTC ratio plus privacy, quantum, and Saylor risk narratives give it room to re-rate from below 1% of Bitcoin's market cap.

ZEC LONG

Taiki Maeda

Bitcoin bottomed, bull market is starting.

Bitcoin has likely bottomed because positioning has inverted from last year's euphoric top: the herd is positioned for a guaranteed Q4 bottom, marginal sellers such as Michael Saylor are largely done, major short liquidations are occurring, sentiment is healing while price made lower lows, and sidelined cash will have to chase as the regime flips from bearish to bullish.

BTC LONG

Taiki Maeda

Hyperliquid and Lighter win perp DEX growth.

Perpetual DEXs like Hyperliquid and Lighter are secular winners taking share from centralized exchanges and options, with the bigger growth coming from equity and commodity perpetuals that could be 10x-100x crypto volumes; Hyperliquid's HIP-3 non-crypto volume is already growing and expected to become dominant, so owning multiple perp DEX winners is the non-tribal way to ride the expanding pie.

HYPE LONG LIT LONG

Taiki Maeda

Farm new perp DEX airdrops like Variational.

Farming new perp DEX airdrops such as Variational is attractive because if equity perps grow and multiple players emerge, early usage and points can become valuable; Variational specifically has a differentiated RFQ model that taps TradFi liquidity, upcoming swaps with very competitive spreads, predictable flat funding, and impressive total open interest, though incentive sustainability after the airdrop remains to be seen.

VAR.OL LONG

Taiki Maeda

ZCSH discount signals likely Zcash ETF.

Grayscale's Zcash Trust discount has compressed from roughly 10-30% to about 1%, unlike the wide GBTC discount during the bear market; this shrinking discount may be a leading indicator of a future Zcash ETF approval, and an approved ETF would likely cause ZEC and ZCSH to rally.

ZCSH WATCH

HIGH

11:47
Jul 15

Taiki Maeda

Crypto is Bottoming. We’re About to Go Much Higher.

HYPE LIT ZEC ▾

Taiki Maeda

RWA perp growth drives perp DEX coins.

Perpetual DEX tokens will benefit from trad-fi and retail adoption of real-world asset (RWA) perps (gold, oil, equities), which are a much larger market than crypto-only perps. Hyperliquid (HYPE) leads with its HIP3 RWA product, while Lighter (LIT) has a Robinhood partnership for distribution. Both have significant token buybacks (3.4% and 6.3% of circulating supply YTD), and the thesis remains strong as long as RWA volumes grow, making these assets untethered from Bitcoin weakness.

HYPE LONG LIT LONG

Taiki Maeda

Zcash recovery and narrative revival drives upside.

Zcash (ZEC) suffered a 60% dump on unfounded Orchard pool exploit fears but is recovering, showing anti-fragility. The Ironwood shielded pool upgrade (July 28) will fix the vulnerability, add quantum proofing and formal verification, serving as a catalyst for narrative revival and positive reflexivity. Macro tailwinds include Bitcoin's Saylor overhang, quantum threat, and privacy concerns, positioning Zcash as a complementary asset (silver to Bitcoin's gold) that can attract inflows. ZEC/BTC ratio is only 0.8% and could reach 2-10%, offering significant upside.

ZEC LONG

HIGH

19:26
Jun 09

Taiki Maeda

Bears were Right. I was Wrong. I Got Rekt.

ETH FLIP HYPE ZEC ▾

Taiki Maeda

ETH overvalued, no buyers above $3k

Ethereum has failed as money, and without a store-of-value narrative, it must be valued on cash flows, which makes it overvalued and unattractive. No buyers are stepping in above $3,000-$4,000.

ETH AVOID

Taiki Maeda

HYPE is winning, hold long-term

Hyperliquid is a winner in perpetual futures with secular tailwinds as the overall pie for perps grows. It generates cash flow, can compound, and is not a trade-around asset; it should be held for long-term capital gains.

HYPE LONG

Taiki Maeda

ZEC recovery to $600 triggers buy

Zcash represents a counter-movement to industry frustrations with Saylor and Bitcoin, offering quantum resistance, privacy, and a store-of-value hedge. It recently suffered a leverage washout that, if recovered to ~$600, would prove anti-fragility and trigger a powerful reflexive rally. The speaker plans to buy back on a recovery and sees thousands of dollars potential in 6-12 months.

ZEC WATCH

MED

12:16
May 19

Taiki Maeda

Bears are Wrong. Crypto is Going So Much Higher.

HYPE BTC ZEC ▾

Taiki Maeda

Hyperliquid perps leader, bullish momentum.

Hyperliquid is the leading perpetuals DEX with structural tailwinds (perps, RWA, IPOs). It has a PvE community, no VCs, generous airdrop, and is easy to root for. The chart shows strength, and he expects the token to continue rising as more volume and value accrue to it.

HYPE LONG

Taiki Maeda

Bitcoin bottomed, will climb higher.

Bitcoin has bottomed around 60K due to extreme fear/greed, Saylor's aggressive buying via MSTR/STRK, and reflexivity. The inability to break lower despite bad news signals a bottom. He remains long spot Bitcoin, expecting it to climb higher.

BTC LONG

Taiki Maeda

Zcash breakout, strong upside potential.

Zcash is a privacy coin with a 10-year breakout, reflexive dynamics, improving fundamentals (shielded pool usage, regulatory clarity), and serves as a hedge against Bitcoin risks (Saylor, quantum, privacy). It has strong community support and is easy to root for. He bought more ZEC as a high-upside altcoin.

ZEC LONG

HIGH

17:18
May 04

Taiki Maeda

Bitcoin’s Green Candle Therapy & Buying ZEC

Saturn (STRC onchain farm) BTC ZEC 1ST ▾

Taiki Maeda

Farm Saturn onchain STRC for yield

Onchain versions of STRC (Saturn, Apex) allow yield farming by providing liquidity. He is actively farming Saturn points, expecting a token generation event. This leverages the same STRC reflexivity and could be rewarded with tokens.

Saturn (STRC onchain farm) LONG

Taiki Maeda

Bitcoin bottomed, bullish with STRC support

Bitcoin has bottomed due to exhausted marginal sellers, predictable large-scale buying by Strategy via STRC, and extreme bearish sentiment (fear & greed at historic lows). The reflexive cycle of STRC enabling more Bitcoin purchases will drive prices higher. He is long Bitcoin spot and perps.

BTC LONG

Taiki Maeda

Zcash is a reflexive privacy hedge

Zcash is a highly reflexive asset: price increases improve its narrative (privacy, quantum resistance, regulatory clarity). He holds a small position based on SEC investigation closure, A16Z backing, same supply schedule as Bitcoin, and potential as a Bitcoin hedge. If it breaks above $500, it could rally strongly.

ZEC LONG

HIGH

19:08
Apr 15

Taiki Maeda

The BTC Bottom: Climbing a Wall of Worry

SOL 1ST SATURN 1ST APYX 1ST BTC ▾

Taiki Maeda

Avoid SOL: bearish supply-overhang/L1-trade thesis, not a long.

Moved from LONG to AVOID: the cited thesis is bearish/conditional-short on Solana, citing L1 trade weakness, FTX estate unlock/supply overhang, memecoin exhaustion, and vulnerability to downside if SOL pumps.

SOL AVOID

Taiki Maeda

Farm onchain stretch projects for yield.

Onchain stretch projects such as APYX and Saturn are worth farming because they tokenize stretch and create leverage products, benefiting from the growth of stretch and potential endorsement from Michael Saylor. They offer yield and represent early opportunities in the stretch ecosystem as demand for stretch increases.

SATURN LONG APYX LONG

Taiki Maeda

Buy Bitcoin as bottom is in.

Bitcoin has bottomed due to extreme fear indicated by the fear and greed index, low selling pressure as investors are overweight cash or short, and consistent buying pressure from Michael Saylor's stretch product which is growing and leading to billions in Bitcoin purchases. The markets are forward-looking, and the consensus Q4 bottom might already be priced in, leading to a hated rally.

BTC LONG

HIGH

22:39
Mar 16

Taiki Maeda

The Bottom Is In.

SOL ETH BTC ▾

Taiki Maeda

"I might start hedging my spot bags with potential shorts. I'm thinking Solana over ETH at this point because Solana has supply issues like with the FTX estate sales from 2023." The FTX bankruptcy estate holds a large amount of SOL tokens that began unlocking in 2025. This creates a persistent, known supply overhang in the market, as the estate is likely to be a seller to repay creditors. This ongoing selling pressure could cause SOL to underperform relative to ETH, which does not have a comparable, large-scale planned supply unlock from a distressed seller. SHORT SOL relative to ETH (or implement as a pairs trade: long ETH, short SOL) to capitalize on SOL's specific, supply-side headwind. A crypto-wide bull market rally lifts all assets, diminishing SOL's relative underperformance; the FTX estate manages its sales in a way that minimizes market impact (e.g., OTC deals); Ethereum encounters its own unforeseen negative catalysts.

SOL NEUTRAL ETH NEUTRAL short-term

Taiki Maeda

"Over the past week, I've been aggressively buying Bitcoin because I think the bottom may be in." The speaker's framework indicates crypto market positioning is very light (many investors are in cash waiting for a Q4 bottom), marginal sellers are exhausted, and a new marginal buyer has emerged: MicroStrategy via its Stretch product. Stretch raises capital by issuing debt at an 11.5% yield, and MicroStrategy uses 100% of the proceeds to buy Bitcoin. Recent purchases have accelerated (e.g., $1.18B in one week), creating structural, leveraged demand that can support and lift Bitcoin prices before the widely anticipated Q4 decline. LONG BTC as Stretch creates a new, significant source of demand amid exhausted seller-side pressure and bearish sentiment, offering a contrarian entry before a potential squeeze on sidelined cash. Adoption of the Stretch product slows or fails; Bitcoin enters a prolonged bear market where MicroStrategy's cash reserves (covering ~2 years of dividends) are depleted; a broader macroeconomic or geopolitical crisis overrides crypto-native flows.

BTC LONG medium-term

19:04
Feb 01

Taiki Maeda

Shorting Ethereum: My Life-Changing Trade

ETH AAVE BTC PENDLE BITMINE ▾

Taiki Maeda

"Tom Lee is out of money... he bought 3.5% of supply... his weekly ETH purchases dropped from $400M to $100M." Additionally, Lee received his $15M performance bonus on Jan 15th (which marked the local top), removing his incentive to pump the price further. ETH's price was artificially elevated by specific, large-scale marginal buyers (DAOs/Trusts). When these buyers stop bidding (due to cash exhaustion or achieved incentives), the bid side of the order book evaporates, forcing price convergence to a lower "fair value." SHORT. The speaker maintains a short position to capture the "trickle-down dumpomics" as altcoin yields collapse, reducing demand for ETH. A sudden "vibe shift" or irrational market exuberance; speaker notes he plans to close shorts in Q1 to pivot long.

ETH NEUTRAL short-term

Taiki Maeda

- Hype (Hyperliquid): "Metrics have been going straight up... tokenized equity." - Pendle: "Hitting new all-time highs in Open Interest (OI)." - Aave: "Sub $2B market cap... buying back tokens." - Uniswap: "Introducing buybacks." The "K-Shaped Recovery" thesis. While the general market dumps, protocols with actual revenue, buybacks, and growing usage metrics (OI/Volume) are decoupling from "vaporware." These are the potential "Carvanas" (assets that fell 90% but have the fundamentals to recover). WATCH / ACCUMULATE. The speaker is shifting from 100% short to a mix of cash and spot accumulation in these specific names. General market beta; if ETH collapses further, these assets will likely be dragged down temporarily despite good fundamentals.

AAVE WATCH PENDLE WATCH UNI WATCH HYPE WATCH long-term

Taiki Maeda

Watch BTC defensive survivor framing; not a clean first actionable long.

Moved to WATCH: Feb 1 video discusses BTC as a defensive survivor/spot component, but this is not a clean fresh explicit BTC long/buy signal. Do not count as Taiki Maeda first actionable BTC long.

BTC WATCH long-term

Taiki Maeda

"MSTR to Bitcoin ratio was breaking down... Sailor is borrowing money... summing MSTR to raise cash." Regarding Bitmine: "Tom Lee is propping up Ethereum... once he is out of money ETH will converge to fair value." These equities serve as "leveraged proxies" for crypto demand. When they trade at a premium to Net Asset Value (NAV) and that premium collapses (as seen with MSTR previously), it signals a cycle top. If they are raising cash rather than buying assets, the "up-only" flywheel is broken. SHORT. These entities are the "marginal buyers" who are now tapped out. Bitcoin price spikes independently of these entities, forcing a short squeeze on the equities.

BITMINE NEUTRAL MSTR NEUTRAL medium-term

Taiki Maeda

- Ezilla: "Sold ETH to buy jet engines... complete scam." - Sharp Link: "ETH gain is negative billion... all they can talk about is staking rewards." - DeFi Dev Corp: "Launching memecoins... 'don't buy this' token." These represent the "Garbage" side of the K-shaped recovery. They are "zombie" entities (DATs) that front-loaded demand in the bull run but now represent pure supply overhang as they must sell assets to fund operations or exit scams. AVOID / SHORT. The market cannot bottom until these entities are "sacrificed" or liquidated. Irrational meme-pumps or "dead cat bounces" in low-liquidity scams.

SHARPLINK AVOID EZILLA AVOID medium-term

LOW

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