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21:26
Aug 21
Aug 21
Open source AI
Proprietary training data owners
UBER
Frontier AI models
Autonomous vehicles
▾
HIGH
Open source AI wins, frontier models lose.
Jason argues that open source will win AI: the majority of corporate AI tokens will move off frontier models into internal/open-weight models because enterprises do not want to hand proprietary intelligence to labs that could compete with them. Harvey building on Kimi K3 and moving an estimated 99% of frontier spend is presented as evidence; frontier labs will be left with mostly distillation spend.
Open source AI LONG
Frontier AI models SHORT
Proprietary data owners become AI winners.
As language models commoditize and open source wins, Jason believes the real winners are companies that own valuable expert/proprietary training data, such as legal AI and other application-layer companies. They can post-train open-weight models on their own data, creating specialized moats without sharing intelligence with frontier labs.
Proprietary training data owners LONG
Uber benefits from open-source AV fragmentation.
Jason argues Uber wants open-source autonomous driving software to fragment the market so no single player such as Waymo, Pony AI, WeRide, or Zoox dominates; that fragmentation helps Uber preserve leverage and optionality across autonomous fleets.
UBER LONG
Autonomous vehicle adoption is accelerating quickly.
Jason believes autonomous vehicle technology is being figured out by far more players than he originally estimated. He previously expected 20 companies to solve autonomy in 24 months; seeing an undergrad build a self-driving golf cart in weeks makes him think it could be 2,000 players in 36 months, indicating accelerating AV adoption.
Autonomous vehicles LONG
Nvidia wins from AV software fragmentation.
Jason says Nvidia is strategically positioned to benefit from autonomous driving software becoming open and fragmented: Nvidia wants to sell compute hardware, and abstracted software plus many AV players means more edge compute like Jetson Thor is needed.
NVDA LONG
HIGH
23:30
Aug 20
Aug 20
GOOG
▾
MED
Google AI products are crushing it
Jason says Google is doing a great job with Gemini, uses Gemini constantly, and found Google Maps/Local/Gemini integration very useful in real-world travel. He adds that Google's AI image and video tools, especially Nano Banana Pro, are excellent and recommends them. This is a clear bullish endorsement of Google/Alphabet's AI suite.
GOOG LONG
MED
23:51
Aug 19
Aug 19
Neurosymbolic AI
In-space refueling
Spacium 1ST
Onton 1ST
Hydrazine 1ST
▾
HIGH
Neurosymbolic AI beats LLMs for trusted search.
Neurosymbolic models combine intuitive and logical reasoning, remove hallucination, build trust via explainability, update in real time without retraining, and are far cheaper and more efficient than frontier LLMs for accuracy-critical tasks like e-commerce.
Neurosymbolic AI LONG
Orbital refueling unlocks spacecraft payload and range.
In-space refueling is the real bottleneck in space now that launch is not; it lets spacecraft carry more payload, go further, change orbits, and extend missions, and customers are already designing spacecraft around future refueling.
In-space refueling LONG
Spacium solves orbital refueling with demand.
Spacium is building orbital refueling stations with zero boil-off fuel tanks and the most precise robotic actuator tested in space, has fuel-agnostic storage for xenon, krypton, hydrazine, and cryogenic propellants, and has nearly $100M in commercial contracts plus $2B+ in LOIs, with next missions fully funded.
Spacium LONG
Onton's neurosymbolic search outperforms LLM e-commerce.
Onton has built Ontology 1, a neurosymbolic AI model for e-commerce search and discovery that learns taste and aesthetic from mood boards in real time, avoids LLM hallucination, outperforms large search companies by 2.5x at 1/100th frontier-model training cost, and is launching an API to plug into stores.
Onton LONG
Space refueling boosts propellant fuel demand.
Demand is growing for space propellant fuels, including storeables like xenon, krypton, and hydrazine and cryogenics like liquid oxygen, because future orbital refueling and moon missions require large quantities such as 10 metric tons of cryogenic fuel.
Hydrazine LONG
Xenon LONG
Krypton LONG
Liquid oxygen LONG
Space industry gets renewed investor momentum.
Space is hot and investors remain interested; the SpaceX IPO has brought renewed attention and positive momentum to space-focused startups, which helps the broader space industry.
SPACE LONG
HIGH
19:46
Aug 17
Aug 17
TAO
Engy (SN53)
Lium (SN51)
Affine (SN120)
UBER
▾
HIGH
Buy TAO as decentralized AI bet.
Jason sees Bittensor/TAO as the first crypto project since Bitcoin where subnets solve real-world AI problems; he personally made a large bet and says he predicts tens of millions, while publicly telling people to buy one TAO as a front-row seat to a possible decentralized AI outcome and a potential 100x long-shot.
TAO LONG
Engy subnet undercuts inference costs.
Jason found Engy (SN53) offers open-source model tokens for Qwen-Kimi and GLM52 at half the price of other providers, giving it real product-market fit; he considered plugging his API key into his Hermes agent, implying the permissionless subnet can undercut centralized inference costs.
Engy (SN53) LONG
Lium subnet scales compute without friction.
Lium (SN51) has figured out GPU attestation and built a permissionless compute network that scales with emissions; after payments to miners were tripled, its compute tripled in two months without organizational friction, making it a premier example of Bittensor's compute-subnet model.
Lium (SN51) LONG
Affine mines reasoning to improve models.
Affine (SN120) is Jacob's subnet that tries to mine reasoning by rewarding miners whose models make other models answer correctly; near-term successful models could become adapters that run much faster, and longer-term mining the latent space of thought is a prerequisite for training very strong models.
Affine (SN120) WATCH
Uber bottom near $67, long hold.
Jason said Uber was at a bottom near $67 during panic selling, and he treats it as a long-term hold in his 'J-trading' strategy of waiting for bad news cycles to buy quality stocks at discounts.
UBER LONG
Figma founder bet from $20.
Jason bought Figma around $20 because Dylan Field is a founder who understands designers, tools, and brand-building, and it's now around $25; he holds it as a long-term founder bet.
FIGMA LONG
HIGH
00:46
Aug 15
Aug 15
ANTHROPIC 1ST
TAN 1ST
Home water purification
Bottled water
▾
HIGH
Anthropic leads enterprise AI subscriptions
Anthropic has overtaken OpenAI in US business subscription and token spend, with Ramp data showing 43.5% of US businesses paying Anthropic versus 39.7% for OpenAI and 6.2% for Google's AI tools. After being mostly unknown 18 months ago, Claude is now the enterprise default, making Anthropic a long-term AI compounder worth owning for a 10-year window.
ANTHROPIC LONG
Solar buildout driven by data centers
Data center power demand is forcing massive solar buildouts. Solar panel costs fall 48% every 18 months and the main bottleneck is installation labor, which AI-enabled robotics can solve, making utility-scale solar a massive and increasingly cheap energy source.
TAN LONG
Home water purification demand is growing
Aging US water pipes, PFAS/forever chemicals, and rising awareness of microplastic and nanoplastic contamination are eroding trust in tap water and driving demand for home water purification and distributed drinking water infrastructure, especially through subscription models with utility-like retention.
Home water purification LONG
Avoid bottled water on plastic risks
Bottled water has serious microplastic and nanoplastic contamination risks linked to brain, heart and reproductive harm. The first class actions have already begun against bottled water companies, and a surgeon general warning on plastic bottles could emerge, making bottled water structurally unattractive.
Bottled water AVOID
HIGH
23:50
Aug 12
Aug 12
SERV 1ST
Mall real estate
Robotics service layer/integrators
Robotics point solutions
AI glasses market
▾
HIGH
Serve Robotics looks very cheap strategically.
Alex notes Serve Robotics is public but valued at only about $450 million, which he calls extremely cheap for public markets ('a plug nickel and a piece of gum'), and suggests its delivery-bot assets could be deployed or acquired by urban micro-fulfillment networks, creating strategic and financial upside.
SERV LONG
Mall real estate is structurally obsolete.
Alex argues that making e-commerce fulfillment cheaper and faster through automation is an irreversible improvement, so physical mall owners should exit: 'if you own a mall, this is the last chopper out. Drop that asset because we're not going back.'
Mall real estate AVOID
Robotics integrators win; point solutions commoditize.
Kevin's broader market thesis is that individual robotics point solutions such as robotic arms will face heavy competition and lack defensibility, so they will mostly become commoditized; the value will instead accrue to a service layer that integrates or rolls up these technologies and keeps using the cheapest and fastest hardware.
Robotics service layer/integrators LONG
Robotics point solutions AVOID
AI glasses growth needs prescription unlocking.
Matthias says AI glasses are a new, fast-growing market with Meta, Google, and other companies launching versions, but adoption faces a prescription bottleneck; Eyebot's kiosk-based vision testing and telehealth review can unlock that bottleneck at the point of sale.
AI glasses market LONG
Eyewear demand rises as doctor supply falls.
Matthias says demand for eyeglasses and contact lenses is rising because population is growing and screen time is making kids much more myopic, while the number of optometrists and ophthalmologists is flat to declining; therefore revenue and demand in the glasses/contact lens business are going up even as doctor availability falls.
XLY LONG
HIGH
00:55
Aug 11
Aug 11
META 1ST
▾
HIGH
Meta’s AI pivot boosts user and advertiser value.
Mark Zuckerberg’s 6,500-word AI manifesto is a strategic pivot that reframes Meta’s AI push as an open, abundance-driven public good. By promising free personal agents, video/design tools, and business-building features across Instagram and WhatsApp, Meta will deepen user engagement and dramatically increase ad targeting signals. This push—combined with a masterful PR campaign to overcome data-center opposition—represents the most thoughtful and shareholder-friendly version of Zuckerberg in the company’s history.
META LONG
HIGH
00:28
Aug 08
Aug 08
TWLO 1ST
ABNB 1ST
▾
HIGH
Twilio turnaround driven by AI and cash flow.
Twilio delivered a blowout Q2 2026 report, raised full-year guidance, and is generating record free cash flow. The company is adding AI-powered conversational agents and routing on top of its consumption-based messaging API, which insulates it from the per-seat pricing pressure that hurt other SaaS companies. This AI embrace is turning the company around and making it a money-printing machine.
TWLO LONG
Airbnb rebound fueled by AI efficiency gains.
Airbnb reported Q2 earnings that beat expectations and raised full-year guidance. CEO Brian Chesky stated AI is improving every part of the business—attracting more bookings, lowering customer service costs, and helping hosts. Although the stock has been sideways for years, AI could help earnings surge and finally break the stock out of its range.
ABNB LONG
HIGH
22:54
Aug 05
Aug 05
AAPL
▾
HIGH
Local AI on Mac will boost Apple.
I'm an investor in Apple with a lot of shares accumulated over the years. I'm a huge fan of the company, especially in its new local models on desktop. I think it's going to be crazy next year when they launch the new Mac Studio with a terabyte of RAM, making the local AI experience a major catalyst for the stock.
AAPL LONG
HIGH
20:42
Aug 03
Aug 03
23:08
Jul 31
Jul 31
SOLAR 1ST
▾
HIGH
Solar and batteries will solve energy and water
Solar energy and battery storage are scaling rapidly, with California recently hitting 51% of power from solar and batteries, and similar achievements globally. Automated robotic installation of solar panels will massively accelerate deployment, solar-powered desalination will solve water scarcity, and together they will solve energy, water, and agriculture. This represents a historic positive transformation.
SOLAR LONG
HIGH
22:54
Jul 29
Jul 29
1211.HK 1ST
▾
MED
Chinese EV makers dominate with low prices.
Chinese EV companies like BYD will dominate global auto and autonomous vehicle markets because they produce the cheapest cars, as seen with the BYD Dolphin widely adopted in Europe and Mexico.
1211.HK LONG
MED
20:06
Jul 27
Jul 27
19:36
Jul 24
Jul 24
BTC
6965.T 1ST
▾
MED
Quantum threat to Bitcoin in 5-10 years
Quantum computing advances may break RSA cryptography within 5-10 years, posing a long-term security risk to Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Surveyed quantum researchers indicate high caution is warranted after that timeframe, though immediate danger is low.
BTC WATCH
Hamamatsu Photonics crucial quantum laser supplier
Hamamatsu Photonics supplies essential high-power, low-noise lasers that are the most critical component for neutral-atom quantum computers. Its strong position in the quantum supply chain, including a subsidiary in Denmark, makes it a key beneficiary of quantum computing industrialization.
6965.T LONG
MED
14:38
Jul 23
Jul 23
18:53
Jul 20
Jul 20
21:20
Jul 17
Jul 17
22:27
Jul 15
Jul 15
13:56
Jul 13
Jul 13
GOOGL 1ST
▾
MED
Google wins from Apple-OpenAI fallout.
Apple's trade secret lawsuit against OpenAI has destroyed their partnership; as a result, Apple turned to Google Gemini as the default iPhone AI, which now generates over $1B/year for Google. The fallout represents a major win for Google and a missed opportunity for OpenAI.
GOOGL LONG
MED
19:36
Jul 10
Jul 10
FIGMA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Figma will dominate AI-powered design tools
Figma has a loyal designer user base, will integrate AI and benefit from increased demand for design (Jevons paradox). At 7x sales and a 70x PE, it is attractively valued relative to its growth potential. As a $10B+ company, it has acquisition currency to expand into Adobe's adjacent markets. AI will accelerate their business, and they will remain a top player in design tools.
FIGMA LONG
HIGH
14:33
Jul 09
Jul 09
QQQ 1ST
MNDY 1ST
BOX 1ST
HUBS 1ST
CRM 1ST
▾
HIGH
NASDAQ could drop 20% on AI stall.
The NASDAQ could easily fall 20% over the next 12–24 months if AI infrastructure growth stalls. Catalysts include a semiconductor earnings miss, financing issues for major AI buildouts (e.g., Oracle/OpenAI projects), private credit hiccups in data center funding, and a leverage ETF crash causing contagion from retail to hedge funds.
QQQ AVOID
Legacy SaaS with data moats are undervalued.
The SaaS apocalypse is overblown. Many public enterprise software companies with proprietary data, established customer workflows, and strong customer relationships are trading at depressed multiples (e.g., Monday.com at 2x revenue, Box at 3.4x, HubSpot under $10B on $3B+ ARR, Salesforce down 40%). AI will help these companies leverage their data moats to create more economic value, making them attractive alpha generators.
MNDY LONG
BOX LONG
HUBS LONG
CRM LONG
HIGH
23:47
Jul 01
Jul 01
Bending Spoons
BE 1ST
MU 1ST
▾
MED
Bending Spoons IPO consolidates older tech profitably.
Bending Spoons, which just IPO'd at $29 with doubled revenue and positive net income, is a profitable consolidator of older non-AI tech companies, offering an exit path for pre-AI startups as M&A picks up.
Bending Spoons LONG
Bloom Energy benefits from data center power.
Bloom Energy is a beneficiary of the massive buildout of data centers, which require significant power, positioning it for growth amid AI infrastructure expansion.
BE LONG
Micron's earnings explode on AI memory demand.
Micron Technology is seeing incredible earnings driven by surging demand for memory chips used in AI compute infrastructure.
MU LONG
MED
23:56
Jun 29
Jun 29
ACN 1ST
▾
MED
Accenture's exclusive AI model tie-up creates risk.
Accenture and PwC made a strategic error by locking themselves into a single AI model provider (Anthropic or OpenAI), forfeiting optionality as models leapfrog each other and tying their fate to one roadmap. In contrast, competitors like EY and Deloitte are adopting model-agnostic control planes (such as 8090's Software Factory) to deliver real ROI to clients. This puts Accenture at a competitive disadvantage.
ACN AVOID
MED
19:11
Jun 27
Jun 27
UAL
▾
HIGH
United's free Starlink boosts business travel.
United Airlines is offering free Starlink Wi-Fi on its flights. Jason believes this will make United's product much more attractive, predicting a 50% increase in business travel on those routes. He is actively considering buying United stock (UAL) because of this first-mover advantage with high-speed in-flight internet.
UAL LONG
HIGH
22:18
Jun 26
Jun 26
UAL 1ST
▾
MED
United stock will benefit from free Starlink.
United Airlines will be the first major U.S. airline to offer free Starlink Wi-Fi on flights, which will significantly increase business travel demand and customer preference. He estimates business travel could rise by 50%, making United stock a buy at current levels.
UAL LONG
MED
19:59
Jun 24
Jun 24
00:11
Jun 18
Jun 18
UBER
SPCX 1ST
AMD 1ST
SNAP 1ST
▾
HIGH
Elon may buy Uber for robotaxi network.
Elon Musk might go on a buying spree if SpaceX merges with Tesla, creating a $4-5 trillion entity. The first logical acquisition would be Uber, giving Tesla an instant global footprint for autonomous ride-hailing, essentially creating 'Tesla's Uber' with no friction. The favorable M&A environment under Trump makes such a deal more plausible. This presents a potential catalyst for Uber shares if the market starts pricing in an acquisition.
UBER WATCH
SpaceX Cursor deal cheap with unlimited compute.
SpaceX's acquisition of Cursor is a great deal because Cursor was cheap at a $4B run rate and 15x multiple. Cursor gets unlimited compute from SpaceX's Colossus, solving its compute dependency after Anthropic stabbed them by launching a competitive product. The deal makes SpaceX an AI-native platform controlling the IDE where developers build, and it fits Elon Musk's pattern of strategic acquisitions. With the current M&A-friendly environment, SpaceX stock is very attractive.
SPCX LONG
Local AI workstations will boost AMD.
AMD's new Ryzen AI Halo developer platform with 128GB RAM signals a revival of desktop workstations for local AI compute. This shift reduces reliance on cloud data centers and frontier model token costs. Developers will drive adoption in 2027, and consumers later. AMD is taking a lead with this hardware, likely pricing it at a loss to attract developers. This makes AMD well-positioned for the local AI trend.
AMD LONG
Snap near breakthrough in AR glasses.
Evan Spiegel is a product genius and his new AR glasses, while not perfect yet, are one generation away from being a consumer success. The stock is depressed at $5, the company has cash and talent, and AR is the winning category over VR. Jason is tempted to buy Snap shares as a halfcourt-shot bet on Spiegel eventually cracking AR wearables.
SNAP LONG
HIGH
00:50
Jun 13
Jun 13
SPCX
TSLA 1ST
PLTR 1ST
▾
HIGH
SpaceX offers multi-horizon compounder opportunity.
SpaceX should be viewed as a collection of businesses across multiple time horizons: near-term Starlink (weighing on current metrics), medium-term Starlink-to-phones, and long-term moonshots like data centers, moon base, and asteroid mining. This structure lets investors bet on both existing cash flows and visionary future potential. The IPO was well-managed with strong retail allocation, and the stock is expected to be a top performer in the NASDAQ 100 within 1-5 years. Long-term investors should dollar-cost average, hold IPO shares, and add on dips.
SPCX WATCH
Tesla bets on multiple future visions.
Tesla allows investors to place bets on three distinct visions: existing car sales, the emerging robo-taxi and self-driving business, and the future humanoid robot Optimus. This multi-path structure makes Tesla a long-term holding that rewards belief in Elon Musk's ability to execute across audacious, concurrent visions.
TSLA LONG
Palantir is a vote on future.
Palantir is one of the rare public companies where investors are still voting on a transformative future rather than merely weighing current earnings, placing it alongside Elon Musk's ventures as a bet on visionary potential.
PLTR LONG
HIGH
00:05
Jun 11
Jun 11
SPCX
▾
MED
SpaceX IPO pullback discussion; SPCX must remain watch.
SpaceX IPO discussion: panelist prefers waiting for a post-IPO pullback before any entry; tracked as SPCX watch under the standing SPCX rule.
SPCX WATCH
MED
08:27
Jun 10
Jun 10
Argonoth 1ST
Grapple 1ST
▾
HIGH
Argonoth has tailwinds and large opportunity.
Argonoth benefits from political and economic tailwinds, has a difficult but thoughtful go-to-market and product, and represents a very large prize if executed.
Argonoth LONG
Grapple tackles tough data catalog market.
Grapple solves the notorious problem of wrangling data catalogs at big companies, a large market that foundation model labs likely won't address.
Grapple LONG
HIGH
16:51
Jun 07
Jun 07
21:39
Jun 01
Jun 01
00:46
May 23
May 23
00:01
May 21
May 21
SPY
MAGS
▾
MED
Own US equities and Mag Seven.
Jason recommends owning US equities, particularly through index funds and the Mag Seven, because these large tech companies are global money-printing machines that transcend any regional currency risk, and owning equities is a hedge against potential fiscal or currency collapse.
SPY WATCH
MAGS WATCH
MED
16:22
May 20
May 20
SPY
MAGS
▾
MED
Own equities, index funds, MAG 7.
In the face of unsustainable fiscal debt and potential currency debasement, the best investment strategy is to own equities, particularly index funds and the Magnificent Seven. These companies are globally diversified and resilient, and will continue generating cash even in a crisis, providing a hedge against systemic risks.
SPY WATCH
MAGS WATCH
MED
00:26
May 14
May 14
Index Funds (e.g., VTI, SPY)
Concentrated AI Private Company Stocks
▾
MED
Diversify from AI into index funds.
Sell concentrated positions in speculative AI private companies (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX) and reinvest proceeds into diversified index funds because these AI companies trade at extreme multiples (30-50x revenue) and face risks from open-source competition, declining token prices, and potential commoditization of AI, making their future profitability uncertain.
Index Funds (e.g., VTI, SPY) WATCH
Concentrated AI Private Company Stocks AVOID
MED
16:30
May 13
May 13
SPY
GTM 1ST
TSLA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Diversify into index funds from AI.
Jason advises investors who are concentrated in private AI giants like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI to sell those positions and put the proceeds into broad market index funds. He argues that token prices are plummeting due to open-source, better hardware, and competition, making the business a potential commodity, while index funds provide diversification and a rock-solid financial foundation.
SPY WATCH
ZoomInfo will struggle with AI disruption.
Jason believes ZoomInfo is severely threatened by generative AI that can automate lead generation and sales development. He expects the company will have a 'heck of a time' and will need to cut half its staff, making it unattractive for investors.
GTM AVOID
Tesla is the future Optimus robot.
Dave believes Tesla's future is driven by the Optimus robot, which will sell a billion units and generate massive recurring revenue through hourly charging. He argues the valuation disconnect from current auto business makes it a must-hold asset with unlimited TAM, and that investors have no choice but to hold it forever.
TSLA LONG
HIGH
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