Why quantum has been “10 years away” for 30 years | E2316

Summary

Jason Calacanis interviews Kazuhiro Nakashoji, CEO of quantum computing startup Yaqumo, about the state of quantum hardware, the error correction problem, and the timeline to practical quantum computers. Nakashoji explains that algorithmic improvements and hardware scaling are converging, with useful machines expected around 2030. He highlights neutral-atom qubits as a cost-effective approach and discusses quantum computing's potential impact on cryptography, including a 5-10 year threat to Bitcoin's security, and the importance of the international laser supply chain involving Hamamatsu Photonics.

• Quantum computing progress is accelerating as needed qubit counts drop and physical qubit counts rise, with practical machines expected around 2030.
• Yaqumo uses neutral atoms rather than superconducting qubits, which are cheaper per qubit and more scalable.
• AI is already being used to correct quantum errors, while quantum computing may later enhance AI model training with novel data.
• Hamamatsu Photonics supplies critical lasers for neutral-atom quantum computers and has a Danish subsidiary.
• Quantum computers could break RSA cryptography in 5-10 years, posing a long-term risk to Bitcoin and encrypted data.
• Governments are closely monitoring quantum developments and may regulate dual-use technology, with the US targeting a useful quantum computer by 2028.
• Yaqumo plans to sell full-stack quantum computers to academia by 2030, then to data centers by 2035, eventually offering quantum-as-a-service.