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AXON
FY2025 Q4
Improving
Axon Enterprise, Inc. earnings call
Buzzberg read
AI Era plan booked ~$750M in first full year, ~10% of total
Axon delivered a record Q4 and FY2025, with bookings up over 40% to $7.4B, driven by strong AI adoption (AI Era plan) and new markets like international and corrections. Management provided a very bullish 2026 guidance of 27-30% revenue growth and a long-term 2028 target of $6B in revenue, projecting continued high demand. FY2025 bookings were $7.4B, up 40%+, with Q4 bookings up 50%+.
Buzzberg read AI Era plan booked ~$750M in first full year, ~10% of total Axon delivered a record Q4 and FY2025, with bookings up over 40% to $7.4B, driven by strong AI adoption (AI Era plan) and new markets like international and corrections. Management provided a very bullish 2026 guidance of 27-30% revenue growth and a long-term 2028 target of $6B in revenue, projecting continued high demand. FY2025 bookings were $7.4B, up 40%+, with Q4 bookings up 50%+. Read full analysisCollapse analysis
Axon delivered a record Q4 and FY2025, with bookings up over 40% to $7.4B, driven by strong AI adoption (AI Era plan) and new markets like international and corrections. Management provided a very bullish 2026 guidance of 27-30% revenue growth and a long-term 2028 target of $6B in revenue, projecting continued high demand. FY2025 bookings were $7.4B, up 40%+, with Q4 bookings up 50%+.
- AI Era plan generated ~$750M in bookings in its first full year, showing strong early adoption.
- Management guides FY2026 revenue growth of 27-30%, the strongest outlook ever provided.
- New 2028 targets: ~$6B revenue and 28% adjusted EBITDA margin, implying roughly doubling revenue.
Revenue$0.7967BReported
EPS$2.15Reported
Gross margin57.9%Reported
Operating margin1.26%Reported
6 grounded callouts
What matters now
The highest-signal changes from the call.
Guidance
2028 revenue target approximately $6 billion, doubling current revenue
Demand
2025 bookings exceeded $7B, up 40%+; Q4 up 50%
Show 3 more callouts
Guidance
2026 revenue growth guide of 27-30%, strongest outlook ever
Demand
Net revenue retention expanded to 125%
AI
DraftOne is fastest-growing product launch ever
Reported period
Actuals
| Metric | Reported | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.7967B | Reported |
| EPS | $2.15 | Reported |
| Gross margin | 57.9% | Reported |
| Operating margin | 1.26% | Reported |
| Free cash flow | $0.1554B | Reported |
| Capex | $0.0618B | Reported |
Forward-looking
Forward guidance
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating margin | FY2028 | 28% | 28% | Initiated |
| Operating margin | FY2026 | 25.5% | 25.5% | Maintained |
| Revenue | FY2028 | $6B | $6B | Initiated |
| Revenue | FY2026 | $5.2B–$5.3BAbove consensus | $5.25B | Initiated |
AI, capex & demand read
Management read
Upbeat
Management repeatedly expressed high confidence in demand, new products, and long-term targets, describing 2026 as the 'strongest outlook' and emphasizing acceleration.
Management AI read
Management positioned AI as a generational tailwind, with their AI Era plan already generating ~$750M of bookings in its first full year, adoption by 500+ agencies, and a roadmap of new AI products. They emphasized their integrated hardware/software/data moat as a durable competitive advantage in AI-driven public safety.
Investment and capacity
The company is investing in scaled manufacturing capacity and R&D to support growth. 2026 guidance includes continued investment in product and market areas, with a mention of inventory investments. No specific capex figures were disclosed, but the tone suggests aggressive investment in growth.
all 6 named companies below
Companiesreturns since call
Customers
PREPARED
Customers
Josh
Axon acquired Prepared, a leading AI-powered 911 software company, to expand its real-time operations and connect its sensor network into dispatch centers. This gives Axon a foothold in the 911 PSAP market, which is a new customer segment.
Evidence
“We're placing a bet on this technology, we're placing a bet on the leaders here, and specifically Michael Chime, CEO of Prepared.”
Customers
Josh
Carbine, recently acquired by Axon, provides next-gen call handling infrastructure for 911 centers. Axon plans to combine Carbine with its FUSIS and Prepared offerings to win over PSAPs from legacy incumbent systems.
Evidence
“Carbine has already proven and continues to prove that, you know, pound for pound, they can outperform on every metric that matters those incumbent systems.”
Partners
SKYDIO
Partners
Jeff
Axon's real-time operations strategy involves integrating with Skydio's drones for dispatch-first-responder capabilities, creating a comprehensive response ecosystem that strengthens Axon's platform.
Evidence
“flow it right into DFR with Skydio and more”
Investees
Investees
Rick Smith
Axon is leveraging its investment in Aura to understand retail security needs and expand its enterprise vertical with software that helps retailers manage cases, aligning with Axon's broader ecosystem strategy.
Evidence
“we partner with Aura, which is one of our investment companies out of New Zealand, that basically runs a case management software similar to Evis.com for retailers”
Supply chain
Supply chain
Josh
Axon's AI Era plan, a new premium offering, generated ~$750M in bookings in its first full year, representing ~10% of total bookings, indicating faster-than-expected customer adoption of AI products. — This rapid adoption of AI-based offerings in a regulated industry signals a significant shift in how public safety customers are willing to pay for AI, potentially impacting AI budgets at large tech providers.
Evidence
“in our first full year of selling the AI era plan, it accounted for approximately $750 million worth of bookings, or about 10% of the overall bookings total.”
Supply chain
Rick Smith
Axon is building for a future where state and local agencies will gain drone mitigation powers, opening a new market for its D-Drone technology which is currently restricted to federal agencies. — If regulations loosen, Axon's full-stack sensor and mitigation network could dominate a new, large market for counter-drone security, displacing specialized point-solution vendors.
Evidence
“today, state and local really can't mitigate drones directly, I think in a few years, they'll all get that capability.”
External signals
Supply-chain alpha · 3returns since call
Axon's AI Era plan, a new premium offering, generated ~$750M in bookings in its first full year, representing ~10% of total bookings, indicating faster-than-expected customer adoption of AI products.
Axon is building for a future where state and local agencies will gain drone mitigation powers, opening a new market for its D-Drone technology which is currently restricted to federal agencies.
The market is seeing a shift to 'AI-enabled' cloud deals, especially in international markets, where customers are choosing Axon's premium, AI-integrated cloud deployments over cheaper on-premise alternatives, accelerating Axon's international growth.
Evidence
“if you want to deploy things on premise, you're essentially signing up for zero AI tools into the future... that is a nice push to the cloud for some governments that have been slow to adopt it.”
Methodology & coverage
Management-only analysis. All 6 validated company mentions are shown. Reported actuals and forward guidance are kept separate. Public evidence is limited to eight short attributed quotes. AI-generated analysis can be incomplete or wrong; verify important claims against the original source.