Daily Alpha · YouTube
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Who was talking 56 videos · 18 channels
Diesel policy backfire
1 video · 2h 24mCIBC's Babin, Standard Chartered's Ashford and Rabobank's Every argue a US export ban reallocates rather than creates supply: utilization would fall from 96% into the mid-80s, gasoline and jet output would drop, and the 1.2-1.8 million b/d
PIMCO underweight hyperscaler credit on expected AI debt issuance
PIMCO's Lotfi Karoui said the firm is underweight the hyperscaler sector because heavy AI-related issuance will reprice existing debt, while stressing this is not a rejection of the AI story itself. He expects roughly another half-trillion dollars of AI-related supply over the next 12 months and sees differentiation, not crowding out of Treasuries.
AI capex: rate-insensitive growth, credit caution
1 video · 2h 24mApollo's Slok says the AI buildout adds about 1 point to a 2% trend GDP and is not rate-sensitive; PIMCO is underweight hyperscaler credit on roughly another half-trillion dollars of AI-related supply; Bank of America puts the equity valuat
PIMCO underweight hyperscaler credit on expected AI debt issuance
PIMCO's Lotfi Karoui said the firm is underweight the hyperscaler sector because heavy AI-related issuance will reprice existing debt, while stressing this is not a rejection of the AI story itself. He expects roughly another half-trillion dollars of AI-related supply over the next 12 months and sees differentiation, not crowding out of Treasuries.
Diesel crack spread hits $100/bbl, exceeding 2022 crisis peak
Morgan Stanley's Martijn Rats said the diesel crack spread has reached roughly $100 per barrel, versus a normal range of $8-30 and a 2022 crisis peak of $60-70, with nominal diesel prices hitting all-time highs above $200/bbl.
Arnold: data center capex risks commodity-style overbuild bust
John Arnold argues every commodity market booms and busts because producers and end users see the same price signal and react the same way; with compute in backwardation (near-term compute worth more than compute in two or five years), everyone builds now, and the big risk is too much capacity arriving later. He notes models assume they can discount rates 60% and still make money, which may understate oversupply.
Corporate refinancing wave in 2028-2031 could cut free cash flow as low-rate debt rolls
Walker argues corporations termed out debt at fixed rates in roughly 2021-2023, so higher rates did not bite immediately, but debt issued then rolls in roughly 2028-2031 and could be refinanced at 8-10% versus prior 3-5% coupons, reducing future free cash flow.
Iben: commodity DCFs are systematically wrong because they fix the dollar and assume commodity prices fall
Iben argues that in every other industry analysts assume the dollar loses value over time, but in commodities, gold, oil and copper they fix the price to the dollar and assume the commodity drops in price every year; the longer the reserve life, the cheaper the market sells it to you, and a company delaying production by a few months gets its stock killed even though 40 years of copper underground has not lost value.