Daily Alpha · Substack
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
The strongest Substack material was a full article on Nvidia's conflicted regulatory advocacy, a rates framework attributing equity weakness to bear flattening, and a containment-style China framework.
Themes on this desk
AI capex concentration and policy
A full article argues trillions of market value depend on AI spending continuing, that Nvidia is a circular investor in its own demand chain and that its CEO shapes regulation from a conflicted position.
Credit and curve mechanics
A public preview attributes the S&P pullback to bear flattening and frames credit-fuelled growth and balance sheet expansion as extending the cycle.
China containment
A public preview argues the trick to beating China is to let them beat themselves, invoking Kennan's Long Telegram theory.
Huang's AI deregulation advocacy framed as conflicted by Nvidia's commercial stake
Quoth the Raven argues Jensen Huang has gained Trump's ear on AI policy while pushing a 'keep moving, keep building and don't let regulation get in the way' message, and that this position aligns with Nvidia's commercial interest in an unregulated AI capex race. The author explicitly concedes Huang may be right on the merits but says his incentives must be weighed alongside his arguments.
If AI regulation risk is being shaped by a conflicted actor, investors may be underpricing the probability and timing of policy intervention that could slow the AI capex cycle.
Watch Whether concrete AI safety or compute regulation advances in Washington, or whether Huang's access translates into policy outcomes that defer restrictions.
Source →S&P pullback attributed to bear flattening as Fed plays catch-up
Capital Flows argues the recent S&P 500 pullback was primarily driven by yield curve bear flattening, with the short end repricing significantly more than the long end priced in additional nominal GDP, describing this as the Fed catching up after prior inaction during the inflationary shock.
Attributes equity weakness to rate-path repricing rather than growth deterioration, implying the drawdown could reverse if the curve steepens on growth rather than inflation.
Watch Whether the front end stops repricing higher and the curve bear-flattens further or transitions to a growth-driven steepener.
Source →Noahpinion frames China strategy as letting them beat themselves
The Noahpinion preview argues the trick to beating China is to let them beat themselves, invoking George Kennan's 1946 Long Telegram theory that Soviet power could be defeated because Soviet leaders, while hostile, were cautious and would not recklessly start a world war.
A containment-style framework implies US policy may favor patience and internal Chinese economic pressure over direct confrontation, shaping geopolitical risk premia.
Watch Whether US policy signals shift toward containment-style patience versus escalation, and whether Chinese internal economic stress intensifies.
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