Daily Alpha · Substack
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Public Substack material was narrow: a bond-volatility warning and explicit precious-metal and Adobe position updates carried the usable signal.
Themes on this desk
Bond complacency
Capital Flows warns that low implied and realized bond volatility is misaligned with elevated nominal-GDP risk.
Explicit position control
Rooster Global reported Adobe stopped out while SILJ and JNUG remained above their last purchase prices.
Bond market complacency warning
The author argues that the bond market is in a state of dangerous complacency, characterized by low implied and realized volatility despite rising nominal GDP risks.
Suggests a potential for a sharp repricing or 'cliff' event in bond markets if volatility spikes.
Watch MOVE index and realized bond volatility for signs of a regime shift.
Source →ADBE position stopped out
The author confirms that their position in Adobe has been closed due to hitting a stop-loss level.
Signals a tactical exit from the stock, indicating a breakdown in the author's bullish thesis for the name.
Watch Future commentary on whether the author re-enters the position or remains bearish.
Source →Status of SILJ and JNUG positions
The author notes that SILJ and JNUG positions have not hit stop-loss levels and remain above their last purchase prices.
Suggests the author maintains a long bias on these precious metal miners despite market volatility.
Watch Whether these positions remain above stop-loss thresholds in subsequent sessions.
Source →