Daily Alpha · X
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
X discussion shifted after Nvidia’s print from demand doubt toward memory control, financing quality and which connectivity suppliers can actually deliver.
Themes on this desk
Nvidia after the print
The beat and guide confirmed demand, while third-party financing and memory reservation created new concentration and competitor risks.
Optical scarcity
Semtech’s order acceleration, laser contracts through 2030 and high-power bookings ahead of CPO demand point to qualified capacity as the scarce asset.
Macro pressure
Broader PCE inflation, unresolved Hormuz negotiations and refined-product draws kept rate and energy risk live despite calmer crude headlines.
Ticker heat
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Top voices by smart followers and alpha score
Market Radar →NVIDIA supply constraints impacting non-NVIDIA semiconductor shipments
Shipment forecasts for the non-NVIDIA camp, specifically AMD and Broadcom, may need to be lowered as NVIDIA secures a significant portion of available memory capacity.
We may need to lower our shipment forecasts for the non-NVIDIA camp, including AMD and Broadcom.
Suggests NVIDIA's dominance in memory procurement creates a supply bottleneck for competitors, potentially impacting their revenue growth.
Watch Monitor AMD and AVGO shipment guidance and supply chain reports for signs of memory-related production delays.
Source →Semtech Q2 earnings signal strong AI connectivity demand
Semtech's Q2 FY2027 earnings call indicates that AI data-center connectivity demand is stronger than expected, with simultaneous acceleration in 800G and 1.6T demand. 800G unit expectations were revised upward from 50 million to 80-90 million units.
and handset-component ecosystems. The highest-conviction read-through is that AI data-center connectivity demand remains materially stronger than prior industry expectations, with
Suggests AI infrastructure spending remains urgent and capacity-constrained, countering fears of a near-term air pocket in AI networking demand.
Watch Monitor for continued supply constraints and pricing power in optical components as 1.6T and 3.2T cycles ramp.
Source →Core PCE inflation shows signs of broadening
Core PCE inflation rose 0.25% MoM, with the Dallas Fed's 1-month trimmed mean reaccelerating to 2.2%. The composition of inflation is broadening, with the percentage of items rising 3-5% reaching a 12-month high of 29.9%.
Core PCE out this morning was a little bit warmer than expected, rounding to 0.25% mom.
Suggests that current interest rate levels may be insufficient to return inflation to the 2% target, challenging the 'transitory' narrative.
Watch Future PCE prints and Fed commentary regarding the persistence of inflation.
Source →Tactical derisking of AI enabler positions
An investor is selling AI enabler positions due to high expectations, potential cash flow pressure, and geopolitical risks, despite remaining bullish on AI beneficiaries and distributors.
https://t.co/K7Mv4v6fvH > Con (@__Con_) > I'm selling all my AI stocks here.
Reflects a 'sell the news' sentiment among some market participants who believe AI stocks must beat earnings by significant margins to sustain current valuations.
Watch Monitor price action in AI enablers (e.g., AAOI, NET, MTSI, NBIS, ASYS) following earnings releases.
Source →Nvidia reports strong Q2 revenue and EPS beats with raised Q3 guidance
Nvidia reported Q2 revenue of $96.2B (vs $92.3B estimate) and adjusted EPS of $2.22. Q3 revenue guidance is $108B ±2%.
NVIDIA Q2 EARNINGS — KEY POINTS REVENUE: $96.2B VS $92.30B ESTIMATE — STRONG BEAT. ADJUSTED EPS: $2.22. ADJUSTED GROSS MARGIN:
Strong results and guidance indicate continued momentum in AI infrastructure spending, despite market volatility.
Watch Monitor if Q3 revenue hits the $108B guidance and if margin stability holds.
Source →