Daily Alpha · Substack
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Fabrinet's full earnings review argued the selloff exceeded the operating change, while the HBF excerpt kept Sandisk's technical upside conditional.
Themes on this desk
Fabrinet valuation reset
Updated run-rate multiples fell sharply after earnings even as data-center revenue became the majority of sales.
HBF still needs engineering proof
Latency, endurance, heat and packaging yields remain open questions for Sandisk's HBF opportunity.
Fabrinet valuation reset post-earnings
Fabrinet's stock dropped 20% post-earnings, moving from ~4.2x sales and ~39.5x earnings to ~3.0x sales and ~28x earnings based on updated run-rate figures.
The author argues the selloff is overdone, as the company's underlying growth thesis and capacity roadmap have improved despite market fixation on near-term FCF and margin noise.
Watch Monitor support levels at $462, $438, and $412 if the $470s range fails to hold.
Source →Contested technology in HBF memory
HBF technology faces ongoing industry debate regarding access latency, endurance under repeated writes, heat management, and packaging yields.
Technical misunderstanding of HBF's capabilities may lead to mispriced expectations for companies like Sandisk.
Watch Monitor technical benchmarks and yield reports for HBF-based storage solutions.
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