Daily Alpha · Reddit
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Reddit value threads focus on AI IPO froth, Berkshire's Alphabet accumulation, and index-inclusion trades; stock-specific debates center on ServiceNow earnings quality, The Trade Desk, and power/permitting assets.
Themes on this desk
AI IPO valuation skepticism
Anthropic's $190-200B 2028 revenue projection is called aggressive; even compressed multiples imply trillion-dollar valuation.
Berkshire's Alphabet stake
Berkshire nearly doubled Google to third-largest position; community debates search disruption vs moat.
Reddit S&P inclusion trade
Reddit joins S&P 500 Aug 18, but Google AI Overviews reduce referrals while Reddit sells training data back to Google.
Highest engagement
by score · day changeMichael Burry adds QQQ puts and boosts MU short, braces for larger fall
Michael Burry is reducing overall market exposure and raising cash while maintaining a short bias, as a recent rally pushed his short portfolio into losses. He added QQQ puts and boosted his MU short.
Michael Burry is reducing his overall market exposure and raising cash while maintaining a short bias, as a recent rally
High-profile bearish positioning may pressure sentiment and drive short-term downside in Nasdaq and Micron, but Burry is known to close shorts after headlines.
Watch Monitor Burry's next 13F for exit signals; if he covers, the bearish signal may reverse.
Source →The Trade Desk still overvalued despite 90% decline
Author argues TTD remains overvalued after ~90% drop, citing competition from Google/Amazon, CFO instability (4 CFOs in 13 months), poor capital allocation ($2.5B buybacks reduced share count only 4%), no moat, and no operating leverage. Fair value set at $11/share.
\- Still overvalued \- Google/Amazon became their competitors, and the pressure on revenue/margin will continue \- Had 4 CFOs in
Challenges the value trap narrative; suggests further downside if competitive pressures persist.
Watch Monitor TTD revenue growth and margin trends; if competition intensifies or CFO churn continues, thesis strengthens.
Source →Water infrastructure capex supercycle thesis with 10-stock portfolio
Author argues water infrastructure is chronically underinvested with three tailwinds: aging pipe replacement, PFAS regulation, and AI data center water demand. Built a 10-stock portfolio split 63% growth/equipment (XYL, ECL, VLT, WMS, PNR, WTS) and 37% regulated utilities (AWK, WTRG, United Utilities, Severn Trent). Expects US municipal water capex to exceed $100B/yr by 2030.
by 2040**. * US municipal water and wastewater capex is forecast to cross **$100 billion a year by 2030**, up
Multi-year regulatory and climate-driven capex could drive growth for water equipment and testing companies, but valuations may already price in the supercycle.
Watch Monitor municipal water capex announcements and PFAS regulation enforcement; if capex falls short, the thesis weakens.
Source →Most argued
by comments per upvoteServiceNow Q2 underlying business barely profitable
Author notes ServiceNow's Q2 net income of $298M included $272M non-operating income, meaning underlying business barely made a profit. CEO McDermott's rule of 57/60 claims are questioned, and Q2 operating profit dropped from $503M to $162M due to acquisitions.
The Service Now underlying business barely made a profit in Q2!.
Highlights execution risk in ServiceNow's acquisition-heavy strategy; if underlying profitability doesn't recover, the bull case weakens.
Watch Watch Q3/Q4 operating margins and integration progress; if margins stay depressed, stock may underperform.
Source →FRMI valuation: sum-of-parts implies ~$8.65/share vs $6.50
Using conservative per-MW comps, the author calculates asset value of ~$6.19B, netting to ~$5.6B equity, or ~$8.65/share against 650M shares. This implies 25-30% undervaluation at current price.
equity value comes to about $5.6 billion, or roughly $8.65 per share against 650 million shares outstanding.
If the market re-rates FRMI to this intrinsic value, there is significant upside. The valuation depends on the TensorWave deal closing and asset values holding.
Watch Watch for the stock approaching $8.65 or higher if the guarantor is confirmed and construction progresses.
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