Daily Alpha · X
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
The highest-attention voices paired AI-cloud pricing and optical capacity evidence with tighter refiner and defense supply cycles.
Themes on this desk
Cloud economics
Demand, prepayments and old-GPU use improved while financing quality stayed contested.
Optical capacity
Coherent's reported growth and guidance supported the capacity-bottleneck thesis.
Refiner scarcity
High product margins and diesel intensity favor a selective refiner basket.
Ticker heat
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Top voices by smart followers and alpha score
Market Radar →Citrini sees a step-change in interceptor spending
Citrini estimated current missile and interceptor requirements imply a near-fivefold increase in average annual spending.
Desert Storm. The DoW’s FY2027 budget proposal earmarks a near 5x increase to spending on missiles. Cui bono?
The estimate reframes replenishment as a multi-year industrial-capacity problem rather than a short conflict trade.
Watch Appropriations, multiyear procurement and bottleneck capacity by subsystem.
Source →Jukan sees AI compute demand still outrunning supply
Jukan's earnings review found cloud growth accelerating, compute demand exceeding supply and stronger pricing and prepayment terms.
AI industry chain. Growth in cloud businesses is accelerating again, and compute demand continues to exceed supply.
The post converges with operator evidence while focusing on unit economics rather than headline backlog alone.
Watch Prepayments, new-cluster pricing and cash contribution margins at CRWV and NBIS.
Source →Coherent converts data-center growth into raised guidance
Crux Capital highlighted 79% data-center sales growth, a quarterly beat and raised Coherent guidance.
Data center + comms now 79% of total rev and grew 59% YoY pro forma.
The quarter supports the optical bottleneck thesis with reported revenue and guidance rather than sector commentary.
Watch Indium-phosphide capacity, gross margin and the pace of OCS and CPO adoption.
Source →Paradis Labs finds old GPUs supporting residual value
Paradis Labs highlighted Nebius and CoreWeave disclosures indicating continued demand and contract coverage for older GPUs.
Then $CRWV yesterday confirmed that they'd signed an A100 contract that "extends into 2029 at an attractive price.
Two operators are better evidence for residual value than a single management assertion, though both remain exposed to the same AI capital cycle.
Watch Renewal rates and realized pricing on older Nvidia fleets.
Source →The Valueist expects a longer U.S. refining upcycle
The Valueist argued U.S. refiners are realizing historically high margins and expects structural strength into 2027.
US independent refiners. They are realizing the highest refining margins in their history, with capacity utilization maxed out, and their
The thesis is more specific than a generic oil call because it rests on product scarcity, outages and limited global capacity.
Watch Crack spreads, maintenance outages, product inventories and new Asian capacity.
Source →