Daily Alpha · Substack
· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Full posts raised two longer-horizon risks: Treasury rollover pressure and greater political intervention around large AI platforms.
Themes on this desk
Treasury rollover
A reprinted macro argument links heavier 2027 refinancing to persistent long-rate and inflation risk.
AI policy
Noah Smith sees state intervention as a plausible response to AI and data-center backlash.
A reprinted fiscal argument points to a 2027 Treasury rollover wall
QTR's Fringe Finance reprinted Peter Schiff's argument that 2027 note issuance could exceed $5 trillion as rollover rises, keeping interest-rate risk elevated and eventually favoring inflation over fiscal restraint. The article is opinion, includes its own disclaimer, and its figures were not independently audited here.
Heavy refinancing can keep term premium and long yields high even if the policy rate stops rising.
Watch Treasury maturity composition, auction tails, net interest expense, and inflation breakevens.
Source →Noah Smith expects political intervention around large AI companies
Noah Smith argued that anti-tech backlash could eventually lead government to quasi-nationalize large AI companies in some form. This is the author's political forecast, not reported policy, but it identifies a tail risk that conventional AI-demand models do not capture.
Capital, power, and permits may draw greater state control as AI infrastructure becomes more systemically important.
Watch Ownership restrictions, utility-style regulation, public financing conditions, and data-center permitting policy.
Source →