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Next edition in 2533 min Jul 30, 2026, 11:00-23:00 Lisbon
Premarket Alpha Post-Market Alpha

Daily Alpha · Substack

12letters

Themes on this desk

Korean leverage

Noah Smith framed leveraged single-stock ETFs as borrowing layered on top of a plausible memory-demand thesis.

Software selection

QTR distinguished an explicit APP/PLTR avoid list from fallen companies still under research.

Disclosed exit

Fidenza Macro said it left AI semiconductors and infrastructure for cash in June before turning broadly bearish.

Substack - Noahpinion

Noah Smith frames Korea as leverage on top of a real AI story

Noah Smith compared buying a leveraged single-stock SK Hynix ETF to borrowing money to buy the shares, arguing leverage amplified a fundamentally plausible AI-demand story; this is author analysis, not an audited finding.

The framing separates the cause of the crash from the validity of the underlying memory-demand thesis.

Watch Deleveraging completion and subsequent earnings revisions will distinguish flow from fundamentals.

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Substack - QTR’s Fringe Finance

QTR keeps APP and PLTR on the avoid list

QTR explicitly seconded warnings to stay away from APP and PLTR, while treating several other fallen names as watchlist research rather than purchases.

The distinction prevents a broad software selloff from being mislabeled as a blanket value opportunity.

Watch Revisit only if valuation and durable pricing power improve.

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full text 10123 chars read
Substack - Fidenza Macro

Fidenza disclosed a June exit from AI infrastructure

Fidenza Macro disclosed exiting its AI semiconductor and infrastructure portfolio in June and moving to cash before concluding the equity bull market had topped; this remains an unaudited author claim.

It is a genuine positioning disclosure, not merely bearish language.

Watch A sustained recovery in AI breadth, credit spreads, and long-duration yields would challenge the call.

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full text 12705 chars read