Daily Alpha · X
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Traders are debating the severity of the ASML sell-off while identifying tactical long opportunities in oversold tech and data-rich platforms.
Themes on this desk
ASML Valuation
Multiple analysts argue the ASML sell-off is an overreaction, noting the minimal revenue impact of China's DUV progress.
Tactical Positioning
Traders are selectively buying beaten-down tech names while hedging broad market exposure due to seasonal weakness.
Ticker heat
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Top voices by smart followers and alpha score
Market Radar →Short MSTR and long STRC thesis
Andy Constan argues for shorting MSTR and buying STRC, characterizing MSTR's capital allocation—holding $3.75B in 4% yielding T-bills while short $9B of 13.81% yielding preferred stock—as structurally irrational and value-destructive.
Honestly why would $MSTR want to own 3.75BN of USD paying Tbills of 4% when they are short 9BN of
Highlights a negative carry structure in MSTR's balance sheet that the author believes is unsustainable.
Watch Changes in MSTR's USD reserve allocation or preferred stock debt levels.
Source →Pentosh1 tactical long positions
Pentosh1 disclosed long positions in EWY, AAOI, NBIS, and SNDK, noting that AAOI and NBIS are intended as longer-term holds while EWY and SNDK are tactical trades to be exited within the week.
> 🐧 (@Pentosh1) > Grabbed some $EWY at 155.52, $AAOI at $93, $NBIS at 166.3, $SNDK at 1395.
Reflects a strategy of accumulating positions after a six-week wait, with a focus on high-conviction names despite poor overall market structure.
Watch Monitor for the author's detailed follow-up analysis and potential exit signals for the tactical trades.
Source →RDDT dominance in AI model citations
The author notes that Reddit is the single most cited domain across major AI models (ChatGPT, Gemini, Perplexity), reinforcing the value of its data licensing deals.
likely be renewed richer. In a study analyzing 30M sources across ChatGPT, Gemini, Perplexity and AI Overviews, Reddit came out
Supports the thesis that Reddit's content is irreplaceable for AI training, making its data partnerships highly defensible.
Watch Monitor the outcome of the Google data partnership renewal negotiations.
Source →Saudi oil infrastructure flaring observed
Satellite images show flaring at Saudi oil facilities (Abqaiq and Hawiyah) following Houthi claims of attacks, though the impact on production remains unclear.
Images from the European Union’s Sentinel-2 Earth observation satellite showed flaring at the Abqaiq oil processing plant, a pivotal part
Potential supply disruption in a market already sensitive to Middle East conflict.
Watch Official statements from Saudi Aramco or energy ministry regarding production impact.
Source →ASML selloff viewed as overreaction
The author argues that the ~6-7% selloff in ASML is an overreaction to China's domestic DUV progress, which only impacts ~2.4% of revenue, while the company's EUV moat remains intact.
I'm not usually a fan of BofA, but I do agree with them calling this $ASML selloff as an overreaction.
Suggests the market is mispricing the revenue impact of China's chip independence efforts on ASML's core business.
Watch Monitor ASML revenue guidance and China's progress on EUV lithography.
Source →