Daily Alpha · X
· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Semiconductor supply chain data points confirm optical and silicon-photonics production ramps, while PJM auction results highlight merchant power leverage.
Themes on this desk
Semiconductor Testing
AEHR earnings validate the transition of silicon-photonics to high-volume production.
Merchant Power
PJM capacity auction confirms structural scarcity, benefiting unhedged generators.
Top voices by smart followers and alpha score
Market Radar →Silicon-photonics production ramp
Silicon-photonics burn-in has moved from qualification to automated high-volume production, signaling sustained demand for optical interconnects.
OPTICAL INTERCONNECTS AND SILICON PHOTONICS SILICON-PHOTONICS BURN-IN HAS MOVED FROM QUALIFICATION INTO AUTOMATED HIGH-VOLUME PRODUCTION (READ-THROUGH 6) Affected companies:
Supports the growth of optical-component suppliers and high-speed networking infrastructure.
Watch Additional production-system orders from networking customers.
Source →PJM capacity auction confirms structural scarcity
The 2028/2029 PJM capacity auction cleared at the $325/MW-day administrative ceiling, revealing a 6.831 GW reliability deficit. The auction indicates persistent scarcity, as supply improvements were driven by accreditation changes and reduced withholding rather than new construction.
EXECUTIVE ASSESSMENT The 2028/2029 PJM capacity auction confirms that the region remains structurally short dispatchable and reliably accredited capacity, supporting
The auction cap suppressed scarcity rents, but the underlying physical deficit and administrative backstop proposals suggest higher long-term earnings duration for incumbent generators.
Watch Monitor the December 2026 auction for 2029/2030; a third consecutive shortfall would trigger a mandatory Reliability Backstop Auction.
Source →Partial profit taking on SK Hynix ADR
The author sold 20% of their SKHY ADR position, citing an excessive premium over the KRX-listed common shares, while noting that asymmetric fungibility limits arbitrage.
I took profit on roughly 20% of my $SKHY position post market as I was shocked by how much more
Highlights liquidity and valuation discrepancies between US-listed ADRs and local Korean listings for semiconductor stocks.
Watch Market consensus on a 'reasonable' ADR premium range (estimated by author at 25-35%).
Source →Silicom Ltd. inflection point thesis
Silicom is highlighted as a long opportunity due to a strong balance sheet (cash/no debt), recent beat-and-raise quarters, and early-stage AI inference production orders.
$SILC - the forgotten Israeli networking name at an inflection. What they do:
Potential for multiple expansion if hyperscaler proof-of-concepts convert to volume orders.
Watch Q2 earnings on July 29, 2026, specifically for gross margin recovery to ≥31%.
Source →Stripe and Advent International bid for PayPal
Stripe and Advent International have reportedly made a joint offer to acquire PayPal for $60.50 per share, valuing the company at over $53 billion.
Exclusive: Payments company Stripe and private equity firm Advent International have made a joint offer to acquire PayPal for $60.50
A potential acquisition of PayPal by Stripe would represent a massive consolidation in the payments industry, significantly altering the competitive landscape for fintech.
Watch Monitor for official confirmation of the bid or counter-offers from other potential acquirers.
Source →