Risks Swirl Amid Rising US Bond Yields: Market Snapshot

Summary

The video covers market views on US Treasuries as long-end yields rise. Guests mostly see a negative backdrop for long-end US bonds driven by heavy issuance, fiscal/deficit concerns, and inflation risks, with several arguing for higher long-end yields or a steeper curve. One guest notes current yields are attractive enough to draw demand, but the dominant message is cautious on US duration.

• US 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions drew decent demand at higher compensation.
• Sree Kochugovindan says Treasury yields are attractive but heavy issuance and inflation remain concerns.
• Mark Cudmore sees a very negative Treasury backdrop with pressure increasing into year-end.
• Henry Allen argues the Fed is behind the curve and long-end yields risk rising on inflation.
• Peter Schaffrik sees asymmetric bond-market risk and little chance of a sustained rally without Fed cuts.
• Marc Seidner argues for a steeper US yield curve with short rates well behaved and long rates as the release valve.
• Fabiana Fedeli says the investor bar is higher in US bonds and US long-end yields have underperformed.